Bitcoin (BTC) broke above a multi‑week pattern and retested about $95,000, putting a measured objective near $107,000 in play by February. Long‑dormant holder distribution has slowed and coins are moving off exchanges, tightening supply, while a potential 20‑/50‑day EMA bull cross and a negative correlation to gold add to the bullish case.

Bitcoin fell to its deepest historical discount against gold on Friday in 2026, as the BTC/XAU Z-score dropped below minus 2 standard deviations. This extreme undervaluation level has previously coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms, including a roughly 150% price rally after a similar signal in late 2022, and has some analysts expecting BTC to strongly outperform gold if past patterns repeat.

Dash climbed 125% to $79.60 on Wednesday as capital shifted from Zcash into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and traders sought alternatives after governance issues at Zcash. The rally coincided with the EU\u0027s DAC8 rules taking effect on Jan. 1, 2026, and followed Dash\u0027s partnership with Alchemy Pay, but the price now faces multiyear technical resistance that could precede a steep correction.

On Thursday, Zcash (ZEC) fell more than 20% to about $381 after the ECC's core development team resigned. Technical patterns, including a descending channel and a bear flag, indicate potential downside toward $200–$300, with some analyses suggesting a 40–50% drop in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin fell by 2.30% on Wednesday to an intraday low near $91,550 even as MSCI confirmed Bitcoin treasury firms would remain in its benchmark indexes. MSCI's decision to stop adjusting index weights for newly issued shares reduces passive demand for companies like MicroStrategy, which raised over $15 billion through new equity in 2025. Chart signals now point to potential downside toward the $88,000–$89,000 area and, if support fails, possibly closer to $79,450.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has flagged a potential AI sector correction in 2026 as a major risk for Bitcoin, warning that a downturn in debt-fueled equity markets could spill over into crypto. Several analysts expect BTC’s decline to be milder than previous bear markets, with projections ranging from $60,000–$65,000 to a possible floor near the $71,000–$75,000 production cost band.

Bitcoin has fallen over 35% from its roughly $126,200 peak two months ago, and multiple indicators signal waning sell pressure. VanEck analysts cite a 4% hashrate decline into Dec. 15, while Miad Kasravi's NFCI timing has often preceded rallies by 4–6 weeks; momentum gauges have turned up from oversold.

Macro-focused traders warn that Bitcoin could extend its correction toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan delivers a benchmark rate hike on Dec. 19. Past BoJ tightening cycles in 2024 and early 2025 coincided with 20–30% BTC drawdowns, while a current bear flag pattern on the daily chart also targets the $70,000–$72,500 zone. Analysts highlight Japan's impact on global liquidity and the unwinding of yen carry trades as key downside risks for the crypto market.