On January 14, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $97,000, its highest level since November, prompting renewed debate over whether its long-observed four-year pattern is changing. Analyst Egrag Crypto assigns a 55%–65% probability that 2026 will close green if BTC can secure monthly closes above $105,000 while holding support near $90,000. Other chart watchers highlight this deviation from past cycles as BTC dominance rises and short-term holders take profits into strength.

Blockchain security firm PeckShield reported that crypto hacks and scams collectively drained more than $4.04 billion in 2025, with $2.67 billion attributed to hacks and $1.37 billion to scams. Fraud-related losses increased about 64% year over year, driven by highly targeted phishing and impersonation campaigns aimed at high-value users, while major incidents such as Bybit's $1.51 billion breach underscored growing pressure on centralized platforms.

On January 14, Base led Ethereum layer-2 fee revenue with about $147,000 for the day, according to CryptoRank.io. Arbitrum and Starknet followed at roughly $39,000 and $9,000, while many other scaling networks generated under $5,000; a DefiLlama table cited by community analysts showed Polygon near $155,000 across its broader network, prompting debate over L2 classification.

Bitcoin hovered near recent highs after briefly touching about $98,000 a day earlier, with the next move hinging on U.S. institutional demand. GugaOnChain flagged the Coinbase Premium Index: renewed buying could push BTC above $100,000, while neutrality favors a $90,000–$100,000 range. On January 16, the Fear and Greed Index hit 61 as whales added more than 32,000 BTC since January 10.

Coinbase withdrew support for the CLARITY Act on January 14 after Brian Armstrong warned of a de facto ban on tokenized equities, expanded DeFi data access, and possible limits on stablecoin rewards. Citron Research alleged he sought to blunt competition, while a Senate committee delayed a planned markup on January 15.

On January 12, Bitcoin slipped under the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven level while on-chain and macro indicators fueled debate over a possible short-term recovery. Some analysts highlight improving capital flows and supportive valuation metrics, while others point to weakened technical structure and resistance near $96,000 that could still cap upside.

On January 9, 2026, WazirX confirmed Recovery Tokens were credited to eligible users as part of its court-approved restructuring following the 2024 hack. The pro rata RTs are non-tradable and may enable reclaiming roughly 75–80% of locked funds over time, subject to three-month recovery reviews and a $10 million buyback threshold.

In 2025, Ethereum recorded more than $99 billion in DeFi total value locked and processed $18.8 trillion in stablecoin settlements, highlighting its leading role among Layer 1 networks. Lower fees on both the base chain and Layer 2s, along with expanded infrastructure and institutional participation, supported broader usage of DeFi, tokenized assets, and real-world asset distribution throughout the year.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty began to decline in early January 2026, coinciding with BTC trading near $91,000 and below $100,000. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost on January 9, the adjustment includes a roughly 2.6% drop with about 1.88% more expected, potentially easing miner sell pressure and helping stabilize market conditions during consolidation.