CME FedWatch data indicate that ahead of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, markets assign a 17.7% chance of a rate cut to the 325–350 basis point range and an 82.3% likelihood of rates staying at 350–375 basis points. Futures pricing shows no expectation of a hike, reflecting cautious repositioning rather than a clear policy signal. Crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, traded slightly higher but reacted only modestly to the shift in implied probabilities.

Ethereum is trading around $2,947 with weekly support still holding, while analysts outline support near $2,618, $2,252 and $1,818 and resistance between $3,348 and $4,619 as key zones into 2026. On the daily chart, ETH remains locked in a range around $2,940, with several potential paths including moves toward overhead resistance, retests of lower support or extended sideways action as 2026 approaches.

On Christmas, Binance’s BTC/USD1 pair briefly fell to $24,111 for about three seconds, a thin-book wick rather than a broad crash, according to Shanaka Anslem Perera. He also cited a similar Dec. 10 spike from about $96,000 to $76,000. On Friday, PlanB said Bitcoin near $87,500 sits far below stock and gold model levels at roughly $6,900 and $4,500.

Ethereum ecosystem transactions have risen sharply across multiple related networks, while technical charts highlight a possible weekly inverse head and shoulders structure and price trading near key moving averages. The asset now sits below its 50 day SMA and around its 200 day SMA, with RSI near neutral, indicating consolidation as traders watch for a potential breakout or renewed downside.

In late 2025, on-chain data indicated that Bitcoin holders with 100–1,000 BTC sharply increased their balances, while BTC’s price moved sideways between $85,000 and $92,000 after dropping from above $110,000. Over the same six-month span, gold gained about 38% and silver roughly 107%, contrasting with Bitcoin’s 17% decline despite its market capitalization remaining near $1.8 trillion.

BlackRock expects only measured Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026 as policy moves toward neutral. The December 2025 dot plot shows a median path from about 3.6 percent in 2025 to roughly 3.4 percent in 2026, implying one to two 25 bp cuts. The firm's baseline centers on 25–50 bp of easing, conditional on incoming data.

This week, regional Bitcoin flows split as US trading hours showed persistent net selling while Asian sessions captured most of the buying. At the same time, cycle charts indicated the current market phase still mirrors prior bull and consolidation patterns, and a Glassnode capitulation gauge shared by Gordon Gekko jumped to its highest level on record as price slid from above $110,000 toward $100,000 in late 2025.

Vitalik Buterin backed EIP 7864, aiming to lift Ethereum's smart contract size cap. In 2025, Layer 2 activity concentrated around leading rollups such as Base, while ETH stalled below $3,000 with a noted support area near $2,800. A recent chart snapshot showed price around $2,931 amid defined resistance bands.

Bitcoin is approaching a record $23.6 billion options expiry on Dec. 26, with positions clustered near key strikes that could reshape dealer hedging and short term volatility. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US are seeing sustained net outflows and price is consolidating around $87,106 within a tight range marked by resistance near $90,647 and support around $83,986. How flows and liquidity evolve after the holiday period may determine whether the market extends its weakness or sets up for a sharper reversal.