Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has flagged a potential AI sector correction in 2026 as a major risk for Bitcoin, warning that a downturn in debt-fueled equity markets could spill over into crypto. Several analysts expect BTC’s decline to be milder than previous bear markets, with projections ranging from $60,000–$65,000 to a possible floor near the $71,000–$75,000 production cost band.

Bitcoin has fallen over 35% from its roughly $126,200 peak two months ago, and multiple indicators signal waning sell pressure. VanEck analysts cite a 4% hashrate decline into Dec. 15, while Miad Kasravi's NFCI timing has often preceded rallies by 4–6 weeks; momentum gauges have turned up from oversold.

Macro-focused traders warn that Bitcoin could extend its correction toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan delivers a benchmark rate hike on Dec. 19. Past BoJ tightening cycles in 2024 and early 2025 coincided with 20–30% BTC drawdowns, while a current bear flag pattern on the daily chart also targets the $70,000–$72,500 zone. Analysts highlight Japan's impact on global liquidity and the unwinding of yen carry trades as key downside risks for the crypto market.