An author argues that the Iran conflict has severely damaged Middle East infrastructure, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and left U.S. strategic reserves nearing depletion, raising the risk of gasoline shortages in July. The piece says that a substantive contraction in global crude supply would deepen a recession and curb demand, pulling oil prices below $40 a barrel, drawing a comparison to the 2020 pandemic shock. It also cites disruptions to Qatar’s LNG exports as an additional strain on energy supply chains.