Nigeria’s central bank kept its Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5% and maintained the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45%, saying the naira should be determined by market forces rather than propped up. The IMF has assessed the naira as still about 25.6% undervalued versus economic fundamentals. Headline inflation edged down to 15.91% in June, while food inflation rose to 17.52%. The central bank flagged escalating conflict in the Middle East as the biggest external risk, warning it could lift energy prices and feed into domestic inflation.

ExxonMobil’s Nigerian affiliate, Esso Nigeria, said it has started on-block execution of its $1 billion Usan Infill Project, aimed at lifting the country’s crude output by about 40,000 barrels per day. The deepwater development at the Usan field in OML 138 is expected to deliver first oil within about six months, with peak production targeted within 18 months, according to Esso Nigeria. The company said the project has received timely regulatory approvals under an accelerated process, with first revenues expected before the end of this year.

Nigeria’s central bank withdrew about N3.3 trillion from the banking system in June through OMO auctions and Federal Government bond settlement debits, maintaining a tight monetary policy stance. The system still ended the month with a liquidity surplus of about N4.1 trillion, but overnight rates rose, with the OVN at 22.23% and the NOFR reaching 24.00%. Demand at primary Treasury bills auctions remained strong, with subscriptions running about 2.16 times the offer and the 364-day stop rate rising to about 17.34%. The move is negative for naira-denominated local equities and bonds.

Nigeria’s total foreign-exchange market inflows in June fell 20.7% year on year to $3.31 billion, as FX supply from exporters and importers slid 32.5% and inflows from non-bank corporates dropped 30.5%. Foreign portfolio investment also weakened by 13.9%, adding to the broader slowdown. Foreign direct investment rose 37.8% but failed to offset the declines. Analysts said more cautious global risk sentiment and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on inflows and highlighting the market’s sensitivity to external risk premia.