Gold has held the key $4,000-per-ounce support level for five consecutive weeks but has failed to sustain gains above $4,100. Over the same period, escalating conflict in Iran lifted oil to a nine-week high, reinforcing inflation concerns. Markets are not expected to see a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, but the implied probability of a September hike has risen to about 66%. Investors are also watching the Bank of Japan’s July 31 meeting for a potential hawkish surprise as the yen slid to a 40-year low, while the U.S. is considering 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners that could add second-round inflation pressure.