Technical Analysis

Cantor Fitzgerald cut its 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $229 from $560, a 60% reduction, while maintaining its buy rating. The firm rejected liquidation concerns, stating the company holds sufficient cash to cover dividend payments for approximately 21 months and can access equity facilities for additional capital if needed.

Bitcoin declined sharply after economic growth warnings triggered a wave of liquidations in derivatives markets, producing an 11,588% imbalance between long and short positions. Long positions accounted for over $115 liquidated for every $1 in shorts, data show. The selloff followed remarks suggesting first-half growth would miss expectations, prompting rapid exits from leveraged positions.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded more than $2.7 billion in withdrawals across five consecutive weeks ending November 28, marking its longest outflow period since launching in January 2024. The fund, which manages over $71 billion in assets, logged an additional $113 million in redemptions on Thursday. Data show the outflows accelerated following a crypto market liquidation in early October that eliminated more than $1 trillion in digital asset value.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projected Bitcoin will reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026, citing anticipated U.S. regulatory progress as the primary catalyst. Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week, he identified the proposed CLARITY Act as a key driver that could unlock industry growth. Prediction markets assign only 25% probability to Senate approval of crypto legislation before the end of 2026, though near-term sentiment favors Bitcoin reaching $100,000.

Bitcoin declined to $92,000 following a -32% drawdown from its all-time high, marking the steepest correction in the current cycle. On-chain data shows the P/L Score has remained in the -3 zone since November 6, a level historically associated with bearish market regimes and extended correction phases.

Ethereum's exchange-held supply has declined to 8.84%, nearly half Bitcoin's 14.8%, data show. Staking contracts, DeFi protocols, and long-term holding patterns are driving ETH off trading platforms at an accelerated pace compared to BTC.

JPMorgan analysts said on December 4 that MicroStrategy's financial stability holds greater influence over Bitcoin's short-term trajectory than recent miner selling activity. The firm's Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that MSTR's enterprise value-to-bitcoin holdings ratio of 1.13 provides market reassurance despite declining hashrate and operational pressures on miners.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $194.6 million on Thursday, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in two weeks, data show. BlackRock's IBIT led outflows with $112.9 million, while Fidelity's FBTC saw $54.2 million in withdrawals. Trading volume for these products declined to $3.1 billion from $4.2 billion the previous day.

Bitcoin is maintaining support near $92,000 as technical indicators show weakening bearish momentum. Market sentiment received support from two developments: Binance co-founder CZ challenged gold advocate Peter Schiff to verify a gold bar's authenticity at Binance Blockchain Week, while Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan dismissed concerns that Strategy might be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings.

Approximately 37,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $3.4 billion expire on December 5, with a put/call ratio of 0.94 indicating balanced positioning between bulls and bears. Ethereum options worth $667 million also expire the same day, bringing total cryptocurrency options expiry to approximately $4 billion. Max pain for Bitcoin is estimated at $91,000, while the highest open interest concentration sits at the $100,000 strike price.