Outstanding U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds reached $30.2 trillion as of November, marking the first time sovereign debt issued by the Treasury Department exceeded $30 trillion, data released Thursday show. The figure has more than doubled since 2018 and represents the primary component of total federal debt, which stood at $38.4 trillion in November including obligations to Social Security trust funds and savings bond holders. The U.S. financed $4.3 trillion through issuance of these three debt categories in 2020 when the fiscal deficit exceeded $3 trillion, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association data show. While the deficit has since narrowed to approximately $1.78 trillion for fiscal year 2025, debt interest payments alone reached $1.2 trillion. Citigroup interest rate strategist Jason Williams said "the biggest challenge is the interest expense," noting that even if tariff revenues reach $300-400 billion, they would remain far below interest payments on existing debt.

Spot cryptocurrency products can now trade on CFTC-registered futures exchanges in federally regulated U.S. markets for the first time, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham announced on Dec. 4. The move follows recommendations from the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets and incorporates stakeholder feedback from the CFTC's "Crypto Sprint" initiative, alongside collaboration with the SEC. The "Crypto Sprint" program has also launched public consultations on all other CFTC-related recommendations from the Presidential Working Group report. Additional elements include enabling tokenized collateral (including stablecoins) in derivatives markets and technical amendments to CFTC regulations on collateral, margin, clearing, settlement, reporting, and recordkeeping to facilitate blockchain technology and tokenization in regulated markets.

The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December stands at 89.2%, with a 10.8% chance of rates remaining unchanged, CME FedWatch Tool data show following Thursday's jobless claims report. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 totaled 191,000, the lowest level since the week of September 24, 2022, and below the 220,000 consensus forecast.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% on December 10, a Reuters poll of 100 economists showed on December 4. Eighty-nine economists forecast the quarter-point reduction, while 50 respondents expect the Fed to lower rates further to 3.25%-3.50% in the first quarter of 2026.

Multiple U.S. employment indicators are scheduled for release on Dec. 4, with initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 29 expected at 220,000 at 21:30, according to the calendar. Additional releases include November Challenger job cuts at 20:30, November Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and September factory orders month-over-month at 23:00. Polymarket data show markets have priced in a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in December at 94% probability as of press time.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.9% on Dec. 4, reaching its highest level since 2006, BlockBeats reports. The increase reflects growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates this month.

HSBC developed its tokenized deposit infrastructure using private blockchain standards compatible with Ethereum's EVM and ERC-20, Sun Lei, Global Head of Local and Innovative Payment Products at HSBC's Global Payments Solutions, said. The bank projects that even 5%–10% tokenization of commercial bank deposits would exceed the current scale of any cryptocurrency. HSBC is in discussions with clients on programmable applications for potential tokenized lending products and has not ruled out adopting public blockchain routes for certain use cases.

The U.S. dollar remained weak near a five-week low, with markets pricing in an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, LSEG data show. On Wednesday, the ADP private sector employment report fell short of expectations, while ISM services data showed easing price pressures. The moves followed signals from Trump regarding a potential nomination of Hassett as the next Fed Chair.