Bitcoin fell to its deepest historical discount against gold on Friday in 2026, as the BTC/XAU Z-score dropped below minus 2 standard deviations. This extreme undervaluation level has previously coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms, including a roughly 150% price rally after a similar signal in late 2022, and has some analysts expecting BTC to strongly outperform gold if past patterns repeat.

On 16 January 2026, Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, presented an analysis warning that Bitcoin could face a structural breakdown in roughly 7 to 11 years as halving events reduce miner incentives. He argues that declining miner revenue, limited fee scalability, capacity bottlenecks, and rigid governance could make profitable attacks and severe congestion more likely as block rewards trend toward zero.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has argued that Bitcoin may have topped out in 2025 as gold surged and oil slumped, signaling what he describes as a historic gold-oil disparity. Bitcoin, which reached a peak of $126,198.07 in October 2025 and has since dropped as low as $84,000, was trading around $95,076.40 with daily volume sliding and price still capped below the $100,000 mark.

On Jan. 16, Jefferies' Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation, citing quantum-computing tail risk. In contrast, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood points to weak correlations, with ARK reporting 0.14 versus gold and 0.06 versus bonds. Grayscale calls quantum fears a 2026 "red herring," while Bitwise's Andre Dragosch highlights today's vast computational gap.

Analyst Don Wedge, with interpretation from Gigabrain, sees a rising wedge near $94,000, with $92,000 as key support and potential downside to $86,000. Coinglass notes whale accumulation at $90,000–$92,000 and sell walls around $95,000, while Glassnode places the Short‑Term Holder cost basis at $98,300, a level watched for trend validation.

On Nov. 21, 2026, onchain research suggested Bitcoin could still be in a bear market despite a 21% price rise since late November 2025. BTC has bounced from lows near $80,500 to about $97,900, but remains under its 365-day moving average at $101,000, a level analysts view as critical for confirming a more durable recovery. The study also highlighted rising exchange inflows around 39,000 BTC on a 7‑day basis, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 again, but multiple technical hurdles are stacking up. The 20‑week moving average at $100,000, a potential 23‑week/50‑week death cross near the same area, and the 200‑day average just above $99,000 form a three‑tier barrier. Since October, price has struggled at this zone amid higher volatility and lighter volume.

On January 16, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Jefferies' global equity strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin after four years, eliminating a 10% allocation and shifting the exposure to physical gold and gold-mining stocks due to quantum-computing concerns. Researchers estimate around 30% of circulating BTC could face quantum exposure under certain conditions, while debate across the crypto sector highlights divergent views on timelines and mitigations.