予測市場では過去2年間で取引活動が393倍に増えた。そうした中、大企業が市場機能を自社プラットフォーム内で運用し始める動きが出ている。Charles SchwabとBetConstruct AIは同日、それぞれのサービスで「Yes/No」型のイベント取引を開始すると表明した。イベントベース取引が、PolymarketやKalshiのような専門スタートアップに限られない機能になりつつあることを示している。

業界有数のブランドが自社の見せ方を巡る問題に直面する一方で、予測市場は収益面で記録的な伸びを示している。6月15日終了週の予測市場の建玉は$1.48 billionと過去最高となり、2週連続で最高値を更新したという。これはa16z Cryptoが示したデータによる。売買高が日々の取引を追うのに対し、建玉は未決済の賭けの価値を表す。

新たなテック企業群が、ウォール街で長く支持されてきた定番銘柄に挑戦している。背景には、巨額のIPO、$60 billionの買収、米国の最先端AIシステムの一つへのアクセスを遮断した政府命令が重なったことがある。投資家はこれまで「マグニフィセント・セブン」に資金を集めてきたが、注目は別の枠組みに移りつつある。

Sportradar reached a multi-year global agreement to supply sports data and related services to prediction market platform Kalshi. After the announcement, SRAD shares rose 9.06% and were trading at $15.16, while Needham lifted its price target to $23 from $19 and kept a Buy rating. Needham also said prediction markets can deliver more revenue per dollar of volume for data providers than traditional sportsbooks.

After one week of U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran, President Donald Trump on Friday rejected any diplomatic settlement short of Iran's "unconditional surrender" while Tehran dismissed calls for a ceasefire. The escalation has disrupted global energy markets, driven Brent and WTI prices sharply higher, and forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving 147 container ships stranded and intensifying pressure on Europe's gas supplies.

In the week before March 5, 2026, Polymarket removed a prediction market that had attracted over $650,000 in volume on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific future dates. Around the same period, Kalshi faced political backlash over a market tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be "out" after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, and later offered refunds. The controversies have coincided with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advancing a rulemaking process to set federal standards for prediction markets.

On March 3, 2026, Visa and Bridge announced plans to extend their stablecoin-backed card program to more than 100 countries by year-end, up from the current 18. Cardholders will be able to spend stablecoins at over 175 million Visa-accepting merchants, while a separate pilot with Lead Bank is testing direct on-chain settlement for issuers.

After the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iranians rushed into Nobitex and other domestic exchanges, driving a 700% jump in crypto outflows as they tried to shield savings from a weakening rial and potential banking curbs. Subsequent internet restrictions reportedly cut national connectivity by about 99%, freezing access to major platforms, slowing withdrawals, and forcing some venues to batch transfers. The episode underscored how cryptocurrencies can offer an escape from a fragile financial system while blockchain transparency simultaneously exposes money flows to authorities and global monitors.

On March 1, 2026, Iran established a three-member interim leadership council after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. Crypto prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly listed markets on the timing and nature of his succession, with Polymarket's volume on the successor-timing market surpassing $500,000 and odds shifting across several March dates.