In the week before March 5, 2026, Polymarket removed a prediction market that had attracted over $650,000 in volume on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific future dates. Around the same period, Kalshi faced political backlash over a market tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be "out" after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, and later offered refunds. The controversies have coincided with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advancing a rulemaking process to set federal standards for prediction markets.

On March 3, 2026, Visa and Bridge announced plans to extend their stablecoin-backed card program to more than 100 countries by year-end, up from the current 18. Cardholders will be able to spend stablecoins at over 175 million Visa-accepting merchants, while a separate pilot with Lead Bank is testing direct on-chain settlement for issuers.

After the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iranians rushed into Nobitex and other domestic exchanges, driving a 700% jump in crypto outflows as they tried to shield savings from a weakening rial and potential banking curbs. Subsequent internet restrictions reportedly cut national connectivity by about 99%, freezing access to major platforms, slowing withdrawals, and forcing some venues to batch transfers. The episode underscored how cryptocurrencies can offer an escape from a fragile financial system while blockchain transparency simultaneously exposes money flows to authorities and global monitors.

On March 1, 2026, Iran established a three-member interim leadership council after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. Crypto prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly listed markets on the timing and nature of his succession, with Polymarket's volume on the successor-timing market surpassing $500,000 and odds shifting across several March dates.

Six anonymous Polymarket accounts collectively earned about $1.2 million by buying "Yes" shares on a market predicting a U.S. strike on Iran that would occur by February 28, 2026. Blockchain analytics firms later traced the freshly funded wallets, flagged them as suspected insiders, and the episode has fed into ongoing legal and regulatory battles over whether prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are regulated exchanges or unlawful gambling sites.

On February 26, 2026, Representatives Zoe Lofgren, Ben Cline, and Scott Fitzgerald introduced the Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026 to adjust how federal criminal law treats blockchain software creators. The bill focuses on Section 1960 of the Federal Criminal Code and defines "non-controlling developers" to distinguish coders from money transmitters. It follows high-profile Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet convictions and complements a separate Senate bill introduced in January 2026.

As 2026 begins, Ethereum is trading near $2,000 after falling about 60% from its 2025 peak, while Bitcoin has slid 45–50%, yet several analysts foresee a sharp rebound. Tom Lee of BitMine Immersion Technologies and Fundstrat projects Ethereum could reach $12,000–$22,000 and Bitcoin $200,000–$250,000 in 2026, with other institutions also issuing bullish Ethereum targets. Large players such as BitMine and Ark Invest are still accumulating Ethereum and related stocks even as retail investors remain cautious and prior forecasts have missed.

At Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Cardano co‑founder Charles Hoskinson outlined using blockchain in mainstream apps like dating platforms to verify profile details and curb fake accounts. ADA hovered near $0.28, with closes of $0.272692 (February 13), $0.295266 (February 14), $0.281780 (February 15), and $0.285681 (February 16). He also pointed to a late‑March debut for Cardano's privacy‑focused Midnight partner chain.

Roundhill Investments has submitted a proposal to the SEC to list six exchange-traded funds that would let retail investors take positions on 2028 U.S. election results via standard brokerage accounts. The funds would use event contracts with binary payouts depending on whether Democrats or Republicans win the presidency, Senate, or House, and could later roll into the 2032 cycle if approved.