On February 13, 2026, Grayscale filed a proposal with the US SEC to convert its AAVE trust into an ETF that would trade on NYSE Arca, following a similar AAVE ETF filing by Bitwise in December of the previous year. AAVE, the governance token of the Aave protocol, has a market cap of about $1.8 billion and was trading at $119.02, up 4.87% in 24 hours, while Grayscale also moves to reshape its NEAR trust as an ETF and plans a 2.5% sponsor fee for the proposed AAVE product.

On February 14 2026, the Dutch House of Representatives approved the Actual Return in Box 3 Act, which would tax real returns on savings, investments and cryptocurrencies at a flat 36% from January 1 2028. The proposal covers gains on assets even when they are not sold, while real estate and qualifying startup shares are taxed on disposal but their rent and dividends remain taxed annually. Critics warn the measure could push investors and entrepreneurs to move capital, highlighting large long‑term differences in projected portfolio values under the new regime.

In 2025, cryptocurrency transfers linked to suspected human trafficking activities increased by 85%, with total flows reaching several hundred million dollars. According to blockchain analytics from Chainalysis, the funds moved through international escort services, scam-related labor recruitment channels, and sellers of child sexual abuse material, raising fresh concerns about illicit crypto use.

On February 13, 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins told the Senate Banking Committee the agency may begin supervising certain prediction markets. Citing Certik, the sector more than quadrupled in 2025 to $63.5 billion, spurring lawsuits and a push for coordinated SEC and CFTC oversight, with contract by contract reviews to determine when products resemble securities.

JPMorgan estimates that the average cost to mine one Bitcoin has declined from $90,000 to about $77,000 since the beginning of the year, following a roughly 15% drop in network difficulty and lower hashrate. The bank argues that this easing is pressuring high‑cost miners but improving margins and market share prospects for more efficient operators, while it continues to project a long‑term Bitcoin price target of $266,000.

On Thursday, February 12, Aave Labs ran an informal survey on the "Aave Will Win Framework" to direct 100% of product revenue to the Aave DAO treasury. The proposal aims to make token holders the primary beneficiaries and address tensions with the DAO. Analysts noted the move could strengthen Aave's long‑term outlook.

The Federal Reserve is advancing a crypto-specific approach to margin setting for derivatives, with an emphasis on uncleared markets. According to a working paper released Wednesday by Fed researchers Anna Amirdjanova, David Lynch, and Anni Zheng, digital assets should form a distinct risk class, with separate treatment for floating tokens and stablecoins to better reflect volatility in initial margin calculations.

Bank Negara Malaysia launched an expanded digital asset sandbox to pilot ringgit‑backed stablecoins and tokenized deposits. According to BNM, the trials will examine impacts on monetary and financial stability and may inform CBDC policy, with guidance on ringgit stablecoins and tokenized deposits targeted by the end of 2026.

Polymarket puts the probability of a US government shutdown before Saturday, February 14 at 85%, while Bitcoin trades around $67,000. The crypto market capitalization is $2.3 trillion, down 1.8%, and the Fear and Greed Index has slipped to 9. Analysts outline risks of a drop below $50,000, while others see a $60,000–$80,000 range.