Bitcoin entered the second week of March under pressure after failing to hold the $74,000 breakout and closing below the 200-week EMA, while traders tracked escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp oil price spike. The ongoing supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with upcoming US CPI, PCE and GDP data, has raised concerns about inflation and Federal Reserve policy as multiple Bitcoin death crosses emerge on higher and lower time frames. Derivatives metrics and exchange inflow patterns, however, suggest whales have reduced profit-taking above $70,000 and some analysts see conditions forming for a potential relief move.

Into Sunday's weekly close, Bitcoin traded below its 200-week exponential moving average near $68,310, keeping that long-term trend line at risk of turning into resistance. Some traders warned that a candle close under this level could lock in bearish structure, while others pointed to potential support around $65,000–$60,000 and tracked gold and oil moves as possible triggers for a rebound.

On Wednesday, roughly 32,000 BTC worth about $2.26 billion flowed out of exchanges, with on-chain analysis linking the bulk of the move to Bitfinex. The outflow, described as anomalous, is being interpreted by analysts as a potential large spot purchase and early sign of renewed accumulation around the $70,000 price area.

Bitcoin climbed to a monthly peak near $73,019 during the latest Wall Street open, but technical signals suggest the bear market risk remains. Analyst Keith Alan highlighted that a weekly death cross between the 21-week and 100-week moving averages is likely to print next week, which could precede another leg down unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin fell about 3% and slid back from the $70,000 mark as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered fears over oil supplies and inflation across global markets. Stocks, oil and gold all saw heightened volatility, with gold retreating toward $5,000 support while BTC failed to turn key trend lines into support. Some traders argued that bears remain in control, while others highlighted Bitcoin's smaller drawdown versus major precious metals and viewed the lower end of its current range as a potential buying zone.

After the Wall Street session opened on Monday, Bitcoin climbed toward $70,000, gaining more than 5% and reaching its highest level since Feb. 25. The move followed a stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI reading above 50, which signaled renewed industrial expansion and helped overshadow worries linked to Middle East tensions, even as US equities struggled.

Bitcoin began the first week of March 2026 trading above $65,000 despite heightened tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices. Traders and analysts highlighted potential downside targets between $40,000 and $50,000 based on long‑term technical patterns, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs logged over $1 billion in net inflows across three days. Market commentary suggested the military campaign may remain limited in duration due to US inflation concerns, while institutional demand signaled an early shift in how BTC is being accumulated.

On Saturday, Bitcoin fell toward $63,000, with daily losses near 4%, after the United States and Israel announced a military operation in Iran. A video address by President Donald Trump said the raids targeted nuclear infrastructure, while crypto markets absorbed the shock alone as liquidations exceeded $250 million within four hours.

Bitcoin retreated from a high of $70,040 after failing to reclaim the 200-week exponential moving average and the prior 2021 peak. Traders note that BTC's rejection near $68,000 keeps downside risk in focus, with some analysts arguing the current bear phase, about 140 days long, still falls short of past cycle durations and drawdowns.