Oil markets have been jolted since the Strait of Hormuz shut on March 2, disrupting roughly 17.8 million barrels per day of global flows. In March, Brent crude jumped nearly 60% and WTI climbed about 53%. For Brent futures, it was the biggest monthly gain since the contract began trading in 1988, surpassing the 46% surge seen during the 1990 Gulf War. A spike of this magnitude would typically lift inflation expectations and push government bond yields higher. Over most of the past 20 years, oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield have generally moved together. This March broke the pattern. For the first three weeks, the relationship held: WTI advanced from $67 to $100 and the 10-year yield rose from 4.15% to 4.44%. The break came between March 27 and March 30. Oil kept climbing, while the 10-year yield fell from 4.44% to 3.92% in three sessions—a 52-basis-point drop—slipping below the closely watched 4% level. The move had the hallmarks of a classic flight to safety, with bonds indicating that growth risks were starting to dominate inflation risks. Oxford Economics summarized the shift: "Growth risks are beginning to outweigh inflation risks." In plain terms, investors are not dismissing inflation—they are increasingly worried about recession. Such a decoupling is rare, and past episodes have often ended badly. Over the last half-century, oil has surged more than 35% over short windows five times. The 1973 embargo was followed by a 4.7% drop in U.S. GDP. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution pushed global GDP about 3 percentage points below trend. The 1990 Gulf War coincided with a short U.S. recession. In 2008, crude hit $147; the financial crisis was the primary driver, but the oil shock added momentum to the downturn. The outlier was 2022: Russia’s war with Ukraine lifted oil prices without triggering a recession, but produced the strongest inflation in 40 years. The March 2026 move exceeded all prior cases. Federal Reserve economist James Hamilton has argued there is no automatic, one-to-one link between oil shocks and recessions, yet "the greater the net increase in oil prices, the more pronounced the suppression on consumption and investment." Reflecting that risk, Goldman Sachs lifted its estimate of a U.S. recession to 30%, while EY-Parthenon put it at 40%. Markets also repriced policy expectations at unusual speed. Early in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed expectations for three rate cuts this year and a 70% probability of a cut in June. As oil rose, sentiment swung sharply. On March 26, the U.S. import price index jumped 1.3%, and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggested the neutral rate may be higher. That day, the implied probability of a rate hike within the year jumped to 52%, and the 10-year yield reached 4.35%. FinancialContent dubbed it "The Great Hawkish Pivot." Four days later, the story flipped. On March 30, consumer confidence plunged, manufacturing unexpectedly contracted, and the 10-year yield sank to 3.92%. FinancialContent reported that bets on a dovish Fed pivot in May rose to 65%. Goldman Sachs said the market had misread the direction of rate moves. On the same day, Jerome Powell told undergraduates at Harvard that the Fed "hasn't yet reached the point where it must decide whether to look through the shocks from the war," while stressing that "anchored inflation expectations are critical." Axios said markets took his remarks to mean the Fed was neither eager to hike to fight inflation nor rushing to cut to support growth, waiting instead to see whether the supply shock proves temporary or persistent. Bond investors, by contrast, moved decisively. If history is a guide, Citigroup strategist McCormick framed the risk bluntly: stagflation ahead—bad for bonds, bad for stocks. The 1973–1982 stagflation era offers a clear scorecard in real terms: gold delivered +9.2% annualized, the S&P GSCI commodity index gained 586% over the decade, and real estate returned +4.5%. The S&P 500 produced a 2% real annualized return, and long-term Treasuries returned 3%. NYU Stern historical data show long-term Treasuries lost 8.6% in a single year in 1979. The traditional 60/40 portfolio was hit hard, while real assets were the only consistent inflation hedges. On the oil outlook, Société Générale forecasts Brent averaging $125 in April, with a "credible peak" of $150. Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $115 for April, assuming the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal within six weeks and prices fall to $80 by year-end. The bond market has already made its call: between inflation and recession, it is betting on recession. Source: 律动

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2 has disrupted roughly 17.8 million barrels a day of global oil flows, sending crude sharply higher. In March, Brent jumped nearly 60% and WTI gained about 53%. For Brent futures, it was the biggest monthly surge since the contract began trading in 1988, topping the 46% spike during the 1990 Gulf War. Normally, a shock of that size would lift inflation expectations and push bond yields higher. For much of the past two decades, oil and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield have broadly moved together. This month, they broke apart. For the first three weeks of March, the old relationship held: WTI climbed from $67 to $100 and the 10-year yield rose from 4.15% to 4.44%. The reversal came between March 27 and 30. Oil kept surging, but the 10-year yield slid from 4.44% to 3.92%, a 52-basis-point drop in three sessions that took yields below the psychologically important 4% mark. The move looks like a classic flight to safety: the bond market is signaling that growth risks are overtaking inflation risks. Oxford Economics summed it up: "Growth risks are beginning to outweigh inflation risks." Investors are not dismissing inflation; they are more worried about recession. Such decouplings are rare, and the historical record is uncomfortable. Over the past half century, oil has surged more than 35% in the short term on five occasions. The 1973 embargo was followed by a 4.7% drop in U.S. GDP. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution pushed global GDP 3 percentage points below trend. The 1990 Gulf War preceded a brief U.S. recession. In 2008, oil peaked at $147; the financial crisis was the main cause of the downturn, but the oil shock helped deepen it. The exception was 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war drove an oil spike that did not trigger a recession but produced the worst inflation in 40 years. The March 2026 run-up exceeded all of those episodes. Federal Reserve economist James Hamilton has argued there is no mechanical link between oil shocks and recessions, but "the larger the net increase in oil prices, the more significant the suppression on consumption and investment." Goldman Sachs has lifted its estimated probability of a U.S. recession to 30%, while EY-Parthenon puts it at 40%. The market's rate narrative has also flipped with unusual speed. In early March, the CME FedWatch tool showed expectations for three cuts this year, including a 70% chance of a June cut. As oil climbed, the tone shifted: on March 26, the U.S. import price index rose 1.3%, and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggested the neutral rate could be higher. That day, the implied probability of a rate hike within the year jumped to 52% and the 10-year yield hit 4.35%. FinancialContent dubbed it "The Great Hawkish Pivot." Four days later the story turned again. On March 30, consumer confidence plunged, manufacturing unexpectedly contracted, and the 10-year yield fell to 3.92%. FinancialContent said expectations for a dovish pivot by the Fed in May rose to 65%. Goldman Sachs said markets had misread the direction of rate hikes. The same day, Jerome Powell told Harvard undergraduates the Fed "hasn't reached the point where it must decide whether to look through the impacts of the war," while stressing that "anchored inflation expectations are critical." Axios reported markets took the remarks to mean the Fed is reluctant to hike aggressively to fight inflation and not eager to cut to support growth, preferring to see whether the supply shock proves temporary or persistent. Bond investors appear less patient. Citi strategist McCormick framed the risk bluntly: stagflation ahead—bad for bonds, bad for stocks. The 1973–1982 stagflation era offers a stark scorecard: gold delivered a real annualized return of +9.2%, the S&P GSCI commodity index rose 586% over the decade, and real estate returned +4.5%. The S&P 500 posted a real annualized return of 2%, while long-term Treasuries returned 3%. NYU Stern historical data shows long-term Treasuries suffered a single-year loss of 8.6% in 1979. A traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) is vulnerable in that backdrop, with real assets the main hedge against inflation. On the oil outlook, Société Générale sees Brent averaging $125 in April, with a "credible peak" of $150. Goldman Sachs is more restrained at $115 on average in April, assuming the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal within six weeks and prices slide to $80 by year-end. For now, the bond market has delivered its verdict: between inflation and recession, it is pricing the recession risk.

Here are today's 10 key stories to know: 1) Trump told advisers he's open to ending the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal. 2) SpaceX is weighing whether to exclude Robinhood and SoFi from its closely watched IPO, Reuters reported. 3) Gold suffered its steepest monthly drop since October 2008, falling 15% in March even as the Iran war entered week five. An oil-driven inflation shock battered the safe-haven trade. 4) David Bailey's Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto Inc. sold 284 $BTC for about $20 million in March at an average price of $70,422 per Bitcoin, according to its 10-K. 5) Mitsubishi is adopting JPMorgan's Kinexys blockchain network for global corporate payments as the platform scales toward $10 billion in daily volume. 6) Forbes estimates Donald Trump's net worth at $6.5 billion as of March 2026, citing crypto gains, licensing revenue, and real-estate holdings. 7) The U.S. Labor Department proposed a rule aimed at making it easier for 401(k) plans to include alternative assets such as crypto, real estate, and private equity. 8) Senators Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis introduced the "Mined in America Act" to support U.S. crypto mining, reduce reliance on foreign hardware, and codify a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 9) U.S. bonds rallied as traders moved to price in Fed rate cuts after Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited control over supply-driven inflation, Bloomberg reported. 10) Binance said it will launch oil and gas futures on April 1 with leverage of up to 100x.

Steakhouse Financial said on March 31 (UTC+8) that its Steakhouse.financial website remains offline following a security incident, with DNS records currently set to blank entries. The project stressed that Steakhouse Vaults are fully operational and can be accessed directly via Morpho, with deposits, withdrawals and all vault functions running normally. According to the team, the incident stemmed from a social-engineering phone attack targeting OVH Cloud, which enabled attackers to seize control of steakhouse.financial domain management. The attackers redirected DNS A records for the official website and app subdomains to malicious IP addresses and attempted to initiate a domain transfer with a five-day lock period. Steakhouse said all unauthorized changes have been rolled back. Domain records have been temporarily left blank while the frontend is restored. The project added that vaults, smart contracts and all deposited funds were not affected, and user assets remain secure. (Source: Foresight News)

DeFi research and risk management firm Gauntlet said on X that Resolv Labs has yet to announce a remediation plan following the exploit and that Gauntlet will pursue full recovery of funds through multiple avenues. To limit further impact, Gauntlet has already removed affected markets across multiple vaults. If assets are recovered, it will deploy a claims contract for impacted liquidity providers. Actions disclosed so far include: 1. Mainnet USDC Core (v1): the wstUSR/USDC market has been removed, impacting about $7.6 million in liquidity. 2. USDC Frontier (v1.1): the wstUSR/USDC, PTRLP9APR2026/USDC, and RLP/USDC markets have been removed, impacting about $4.3 million in liquidity. 3. Seamless USDC (v1.1) and Extrafi XLend USDC (v1.1): the USR/USDC market has been removed. 4. Resolv USDC (v1.1)-related markets will be removed after the 3-day lockup period ends.

Author: Shenchao TechFlow U.S. equities enter quarter-end with a heavy bill to pay. The calendar flipped to March 31, closing out the first quarter of 2026 after a volatile stretch dominated by the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. By Monday's close (March 30), the S&P 500 finished at 6,343, down more than 7% for the quarter and more than 9% below its January high, flirting with correction territory. The Nasdaq is already in correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average officially slipped into correction last Friday—the first time since the Fed's aggressive 2022 hiking cycle that both the Dow and Nasdaq have been in correction at the same time. Small caps were hit harder: the Russell 2000 closed at 2,414, with a drawdown exceeding 12%. The S&P 500 has now notched five straight weekly declines, its longest losing streak since 2022. Quarter-end "window dressing" typically provides a tailwind as managers trim laggards and add winners. This quarter, the definition of a "winner" flipped: energy and defense stocks advanced while tech and consumer names sold off sharply. Many portfolios' best performers were oil-related holdings rather than familiar megacap leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft. Monday's tape underscored that split: the Dow added 49.5 points (+0.11%) on support from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and energy names, while the S&P 500 fell 0.39% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73%, again dragged by technology. Micron sank 9.7% in a single session, highlighting the slow grind lower across semiconductors as the conflict reverberates through supply chains. Traders are weighing Google's computational-efficiency advances alongside renewed uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, turning even favored AI-hardware names into skittish holdings. A key technical signal also flashed: the technology sector's 50-day moving average has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross." The sector has now logged five consecutive monthly declines, the longest such run since September 2002 in the aftermath of the dotcom bust. Powell struck a dovish tone, markets still fell. In remarks at Harvard on Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy is "in the right place" and suggested the central bank is inclined to "look through" the supply-side shock. "By the time the full effects of monetary tightening are felt in the economy, this oil price shock will likely already be over—and tightening further at that point would be inappropriate," Powell said. The message read as textbook dovish. Markets did not take it that way, in part because crude kept climbing: WTI held above $102.88 and Brent stayed above $108. The gap between the Fed's willingness to look through the shock and oil's refusal to cool has become one of the quarter's defining tensions. Tuesday's agenda is packed. During U.S. trading hours, investors will parse the March Consumer Confidence Index and February JOLTS job openings data. After the close, Nike reports earnings—the only major Dow component report this quarter and a key read on the consumer. Wall Street expects EPS of about $0.29 (down roughly 46% year over year) on revenue near $11.2 billion (about flat). With comparisons already easy, management commentary on supply-chain disruptions in Vietnam and India linked to the Hormuz blockade will be closely watched. Morgan Stanley also struck a defensive posture heading into quarter-end, downgrading global equities to "neutral" while upgrading U.S. Treasuries and cash to "overweight." The bank cited uncertainty around the scale and duration of oil-supply disruptions, warning that the outlook for risk assets has become increasingly asymmetric. Oil and gold: War premium holds, gold rebounds off lows Oil: $103 with the war premium intact WTI settled Monday at $102.88 per barrel, while Brent traded around $108–$109, both marking fresh interim highs since the Iran conflict began. Weekend escalation drove the move: Houthi forces in Yemen launched missiles at Israeli and U.S. military targets, and Iran attacked a tanker transiting Kuwaiti waters overnight—a headline that helped push futures higher during Monday's session. The quarter's defining macro move is crude's surge. WTI started the year near $57 and is now up about 80%. Economists have compared the current supply contraction to the 1973 OPEC embargo during the Arab–Israeli War. The IEA has called the episode "the most severe global energy security challenge in history." Gold: looking for another lift amid oil-driven inflation fears Gold rose about 1.4% Monday to roughly $4,542–$4,544, rebounding from around $4,100. The setup remains conflicted: a firmer dollar and rising inflation expectations are headwinds, while geopolitical demand and steady central-bank buying continue to underpin the market. Gold fell about 17% in March—its worst monthly drop since 1983—after hitting a record high of $5,600. Even so, it ended the quarter in positive territory and remains among the year's top-performing major assets outside of energy. Crypto: Bitcoin steadies after the slide, but Q1 damage is deep Bitcoin closed Monday near $66,727 after briefly rebounding to around $67,747 intraday. For the quarter, it fell more than 30% from its early-year high near $97,000, making it the worst-performing major asset class in Q1. A notable end-of-quarter signal: Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases this week for the first time, snapping a 13-week streak of continuous buying during the most intense phase of the conflict. The pause isn't necessarily bearish—it could reflect internal operational adjustments—but the timing drew attention, coming soon after Bernstein said "the bottom is in." Bitcoin's Q1 path reflected competing forces. It initially sold off with risk assets as the war began, then staged periodic rebounds that suggested some "geopolitical crisis resilience." Ultimately, shifting rate expectations toward potential hikes tightened liquidity conditions and pulled crypto back into the broader risk-asset repricing. Total crypto market capitalization shrank about 25% in Q1 to roughly $2.5 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index stayed near 25 ("extreme fear"). The dominant pressure wasn't a single crash, but the persistent shift in expectations from "rate cuts" to "possible rate hikes." Quarter-end scorecard: 32 days that reshaped the tape March 31, 2026 marks the end of Q1 and, in effect, the first quarter of war-driven repricing. • U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 fell more than 7% in Q1; the Dow and Nasdaq moved into correction territory. Tech logged its longest run of consecutive monthly declines since 2002 (five months). The VIX held above 30. Most of the quarter's drop unfolded in the 32 trading days after the U.S.-Israel joint strike on Iran on February 28. • Oil/Gold: WTI climbed from about $57 to about $102, up roughly 80%, the most direct channel for war spillover into the global economy. Gold retreated from $5,600 to around $4,500; it still posted a positive quarterly return but suffered a roughly 17% loss in March, its worst monthly decline since 1983. • Crypto: Bitcoin fell more than 30% in Q1 and ranked as the quarter's worst major asset, though it has rebounded from its recent low near $62,800 and is now trading in a steadier $66,000–$68,000 range. Markets are now fixated on one looming date: April 6. That is the latest deadline set by Trump, when he must choose between striking Iran's energy infrastructure or extending the deadline again if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Either path carries a price: an attack risks oil surging past $130 and raises recession odds; another extension further erodes negotiating credibility as investors begin to price in a prolonged blockade. No one knows which option will be taken. What is clear is that Q1 is over, and the cost of those 32 days has been carved into the price action across every major asset class.

ChainCatcher reports that, based on BBX data, publicly listed companies worldwide took five notable steps yesterday to optimize corporate treasury strategies. Boya Interactive (0434.HK) approved an additional US$50 million budget to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, lifting cumulative digital-asset investment to more than US$250 million. The company said it aims to become Asia's largest digital-asset treasury entity. TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) said it used cash flow from its high-performance computing business to repay its final tranche of high-interest debt. The company, which describes itself as one of the most energy-efficient crypto miners globally, said it entered a "100% production retention" phase effective yesterday. HIVE Digital (TSXV: HIVE) reported that profits from its Sweden-based AI data center covered global operating costs for a second straight month. As a result, all Bitcoin mined yesterday was booked as "net reserve", with no requirement to sell into the market. Acurx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACXP) confirmed completion of its first US$10 million strategic Bitcoin purchase. The biopharma company said it intends to treat Bitcoin as a "value anchor" to support clinical R&D funding over the next five years. Public.com rolled out an "Automated Treasury Balancing" product for SMEs, designed to convert idle corporate cash into BTC on a proportional basis. First-day subscription volume exceeded US$80 million.

Robinhood on March 31 (UTC+8) released platform trading figures covering Sunday, March 1, 2026 through Friday, March 27, 2026. Stock notional trading volume was about $196 billion, while options activity totaled roughly 187 million contracts. Cryptocurrency notional trading volume reached about $16 billion, including $5 billion on the Robinhood app and $11 billion via Bitstamp. Event contract (prediction market) trading volume came in at approximately $2.6 billion. The company said full March 2026 operating metrics will be reported with its Q1 2026 earnings. (Source: ODAILY)

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has told aides he would be willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, The Wall Street Journal reported.