Wintermute: Bitcoin Support Seen at $75,000–$76,000; Market Structure Not Yet Broken
BlockBeats reported that on May 26, Wintermute said macro conditions improved notably last week. Brent crude fell 9% as tensions involving Iran eased, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.50%, and U.S. equities notched an eighth straight weekly gain to fresh record highs—helping to ease energy-led inflation pressure.
Consumer stress, though, remains acute. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low of 44.8, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. At the same time, May manufacturing PMI climbed to a four-year high and input costs hit their highest level since 2022, pointing to renewed goods inflation.
The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes also suggested that "if inflation remains stubborn, further policy tightening may be warranted," and Wintermute noted markets have yet to fully price in that more hawkish tone.
In tech, NVIDIA posted what Wintermute called an "explosive" earnings report. Q1 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with data center revenue rising 92%. The company also announced an $80 billion share buyback and a 25% dividend increase. More importantly, its Q2 outlook effectively assumes zero revenue from Chinese data centers, implying even stronger underlying AI demand. Despite that, the stock barely moved in after-hours trading—seen as a sign AI trades have entered a "perfectly priced" phase where upside surprises no longer reliably generate momentum.
Wintermute framed this as a warning for risk assets, including crypto: if AI momentum fades, weak consumer spending, sticky inflation, and a potentially more hawkish Fed could reassert themselves as dominant themes.
Crypto has lagged U.S. equities. BTC is trading around $76,000 and ETH has fallen to $2,140, with neither tracking the broader risk rally. Over the past two weeks, cumulative outflows from BTC spot ETFs have exceeded $2 billion, signaling a clear cooling in institutional allocations, with marginal risk appetite shifting back toward AI equities rather than crypto. The ETH/BTC ratio has continued to slide, hitting a 10-month low.
Among the few assets bucking the trend, HYPE stood out with a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million and signs of sustained accumulation by large institutional wallets.
Wintermute said the market structure has not fully deteriorated: long-term holders are still accumulating and exchange reserves remain low. Yet near-term flow-driven support has weakened as price-moving capital turns negative. Bitcoin's key support is now seen at $75,000–$76,000; a break could quickly open a retest of the $70,000–$72,000 zone. If support holds, BTC could still make another run at $80,000.
