Bitcoin Pricing Driven By Overlapping Halving And Macro Cycles, Analysts Argue

Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s price cannot be reduced to a single halving or macro cycle, as several economic forces interact at the same time. Giovanni notes that the halving still mechanically changes miner incentives while a 4‑year pattern also appears in the PMI, implying coupled cycles rather than one dominant driver. Another analyst, The Smart Ape, reports that a simple probability model for 15‑minute BTC markets on Polymarket tracks trader‑set odds within a 1–5% band, suggesting bot‑driven, rules‑based trading behaviour.