Bitcoin fell to $63,030 after US-Israel strikes on Iran but then rallied intraday to $74,000 on Mar. 4, leaving price hovering around $73,613 with a roughly 7.7% daily gain. On-chain and derivatives data from Glassnode highlight $70,000 as a key weekly resistance-turned-support test, with a broader $60,000–$69,000 zone acting as the main demand area if the bounce fails. Options positioning clusters negative gamma and call premium at $75,000, making that strike a major liquidity magnet that still requires stronger spot and ETF inflows to sustain any move higher.

On March 2, 2026, US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $458.2 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust with $263.2 million. The flows extended a prior week's $787 million turnaround after earlier multi-week withdrawals, as institutional investors added exposure during global uncertainty and market volatility.

Analyst Ali Martinez noted that over the past decade Bitcoin has typically formed cycle lows when trading between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV pricing bands, which are now near $54,000 and $43,000. In the current cycle BTC has not dropped below the 1.0 band and has also stayed under the 2.4 and 3.2 bands, while trading around $73,000 with a weekly gain of more than 6%.

Bitcoin has pushed above $70,000 and briefly reclaimed $73,000, but price action is now testing a dense resistance band between $71,800 and $73,000 that has repeatedly halted rallies. Technical analysts warn that failure to close above $73,500 and ultimately $74,500 could validate a large Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with downside projections toward the $50,000 area, even as ETF inflows and mixed macro sentiment pull the market in opposing directions.

On Wednesday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $307 million, while Bitcoin briefly moved past $73,000. Over the last three trading days, cumulative ETF inflows reached $1.1 billion, pushing year-to-date flows back to around $700 million after a prior $3.8 billion outflow stretch.

On March 5, 2026, analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin may stage a short-term advance into March if its historical yearly pattern repeats. He noted that BTC has often dropped in January and February, rebounded in March, and then softened in April and May. Cowen cautioned that such March strength has typically produced only a lower high before further downside, highlighting resistance near $74,000–$75,000 and a bear market resistance band around $85,000.

In the past 48 hours, Bitcoin has rallied nearly 8% and is now testing the $73,000 level, yet sentiment remains weak with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index stuck at 22. Despite this rebound, the cryptocurrency is still down 42.6% from its all-time high set about five months ago. Recent data show that a brief improvement in early January followed a deep slump in December 2025, but February's extreme fear and single-digit readings have left traders cautious about the latest move.

Bitcoin climbed past the $70,000 resistance and recorded a monthly high at $74,000, extending an $11,000 rebound from a recent Saturday low linked to tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Analysts highlight renewed spot ETF inflows, post-holiday activity in China, and strong whale buying as drivers, and now focus on light supply between $72,000 and $81,000 with major resistance projected around $83,307 and $84,569.