Fed rate-hike odds for next month jump to 49%

A sharp rise in perceived odds of a near-term Fed rate hike (to 49%) signals tighter financial conditions risk. Higher policy-rate expectations typically push short-end yields up, support the US dollar, and pressure duration-sensitive assets and risk markets via higher discount rates and reduced liquidity. In the short run, volatility may increase across rates, FX, equities, and crypto as positioning adjusts to the repriced policy path.