Analysts Warn Nvidia's Possible $250 Billion OpenAI Backing Shows Echoes of Past Tech-Bubble Playbooks

Nvidia is said to be in advanced negotiations to provide roughly $250 billion in financing guarantees tied to OpenAI's plan to lease a huge data center in southern Ohio. The proposed site would have 10 gigawatts of capacity, which would make it the largest AI data-center project publicly discussed to date. Separate talks also cover potential chip purchases of up to $350 billion. Combined, the full scope of the effort could top $500 billion. ### "Circular financing" concerns Some analysts describe the structure as a form of "circular financing" and a sign of bubble-like behavior, explicitly comparing it with dynamics seen during the dotcom era. Nvidia shares fell about 5% after reports of the latest discussions. In the dotcom boom, telecom suppliers such as Lucent Technologies offered extensive vendor financing to customers, who then used those funds to buy Lucent equipment. Sales looked strong until customers struggled to repay, triggering a broader collapse. Lucent shares dropped from above $80 to below $1. ### A moving target A letter of intent dated September 22, 2025, outlined Nvidia's willingness to invest up to $100 billion over time to support OpenAI's deployment of Nvidia systems, beginning with an initial $10 billion tranche. Reports later suggested internal reservations at Nvidia, with the commitment reduced to talks of about $30 billion in investments by February 2026. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 26, 2026, that discussions around the $250 billion financing guarantee remain active and are progressing. The 10 GW power requirement in southern Ohio is also said to involve electricity-supply considerations that touch on elements of the US government. For context, 10 gigawatts is roughly enough electricity to power a midsized European country.