U.S.-Iran tensions snarl Hormuz flows, raising supply risks for Asian refiners
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Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions are disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing rerouting of over 3 mb/d of Saudi crude and creating delivery uncertainty for Asian refiners. Concurrent attacks on Russian refining and tighter diesel exports add a second supply shock, while limited global refining slack amplifies the impact. The result is a sharp jump in diesel and jet fuel margins, tightening near-term crude and products balances.
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A flare-up in U.S.-Iran tensions is disrupting tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing back August cargo schedules for Asian refiners, Reuters reported. Consultancy Energy Aspects estimates more than 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude will need to be rerouted.
FPCC President Lin Kechang said the company had planned to lift its August utilization rate to 480,000 barrels per day, but the conflict has introduced uncertainty over deliveries.
At the same time, Ukrainian drone strikes have hit Russian refining sites, leading Moscow to tighten diesel export restrictions. Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby said global refining capacity is too limited to cushion the two shocks.
Asian refiners have seen diesel and jet fuel margins jump above $65 a barrel, from about $20 before the conflict.
