Kalshi, Polymarket Win Preliminary Injunction Against Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban
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A federal judge's preliminary injunction against Minnesota's prediction-market ban signals stronger federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act and reinforces the CFTC's authority over event-contract structures akin to swaps. This reduces near-term state-level regulatory friction for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, supporting broader participation and product continuity. The ruling is a constructive regulatory datapoint for crypto-adjacent markets and sentiment toward compliant derivatives innovation.
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U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota issued a preliminary injunction on Monday blocking enforcement of the state's recently enacted ban on prediction markets, finding it may conflict with the federal Commodity Exchange Act. The order grants relief to Kalshi, Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which sued Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law that would criminalize prediction market operators offering these products to Minnesota residents.
Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC argued that the contracts at issue are structured as "swaps" and fall under the CFTC's regulatory authority, making the state restriction unlawful. In her ruling, Menendez said the plaintiffs are likely to succeed at trial, indicating the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Minnesota's statute.
