Analyst: Physical supply shock is pushing oil prices higher; Trump's rhetoric seen as marginal

Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA warned that if a conflict involving Iran leads to a near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz for the next six to eight weeks, crude could jump to $150—or even $200—a barrel. FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said Tuesday that roughly 100 million barrels a week would be unable to transit the waterway, equivalent to about 400 million barrels a month. He said the longer the disruption lasts, the more severe the market impact will become. Fesharaki played down the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump's public remarks, including comments about a potential end to the conflict, arguing that prices are ultimately set by the "physical reality" of supply being cut off. He said that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains physically closed, prices will keep rising regardless of political statements. (Jin10)