Bitcoin Capitulation: Realized Losses Hit $1.35B a Day as Long-Term Holders Lead the Selling

Glassnode says Bitcoin's latest selloff sparked a sharp capitulation event, with on-chain realized losses surging as long-term holders accounted for most of the selling pressure. In its weekly report, Glassnode tracks "Realized Loss"—an on-chain measure that totals the U.S. dollar value of losses locked in when investors sell at a lower price than their cost basis. The metric jumped alongside the BTC drop, peaking around $1.35 billion per day. Long-term holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding coins for more than 155 days, represented roughly $770 million of those daily losses. Short-term holders (STHs, under 155 days) also sold, but unlike prior capitulation episodes, they were not the main driver this time. Glassnode notes that large realized-loss spikes are common during steep drawdowns. Similar surges appeared during the November and February crashes, though those moves were larger because the underlying price declines were deeper. The notable difference is composition: the November and February capitulations were led primarily by STHs, while the latest wave was led by LTHs—many of whom bought before January 2026 near the highs of the 2025 bull market. Glassnode argues the shift fits a broader late-cycle pattern. "As the bear market matures, this pattern of longterm holder capitulation passing supply into new hands at lower prices is a recurring and necessary feature of cycle bottoming processes, though the current pace of loss realization suggests that process remains incomplete," the report said. The decline also hit derivatives markets. Glassnode points to a sizable liquidation wave dominated by long liquidations, adding that historically, large-scale long wipeouts can align with local exhaustion points as forced selling cascades through futures markets. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading near $65,500, down more than 12% over the past seven days. For investors, an LTH-led capitulation signals more than short-term panic: it reflects longer-held positions being cut at losses, potentially redistributing supply in a way that can help form a market bottom—though Glassnode cautions the process may still be unfinished. Large long liquidations can accelerate that reset and sometimes coincide with local lows, but they do not guarantee an immediate rebound.