JPMorgan Cuts Bitcoin Production Cost Estimate to $77,000 as Mining Difficulty Drops

JPMorgan has lowered its estimated bitcoin production cost to $77,000 from roughly $90,000 at the start of the year, with analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou citing declining mining difficulty and hashrate as key drivers. The bank said falling difficulty has temporarily eased pressure on more efficient miners and improved their odds of earning block rewards, while weaker, higher-cost operators using outdated equipment or facing expensive power exited the market amid U.S. winter storms and power curtailments in Texas. Hashrate has already begun to recover and could push both mining difficulty and production costs higher at the next network adjustment, JPMorgan said, adding that it continues to view production cost as a soft price floor for bitcoin. The bank remains constructive on crypto markets into 2026, highlighting expectations for stronger institutional flows, potential regulatory support such as the proposed Clarity Act in the United States, and a long-term bitcoin price target of $266,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold.