Trump says an extension of the Iran ceasefire deal is "extremely unlikely"

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 — Futures Morning Rush Top headlines 1) Iran's Foreign Ministry said there are no plans for a second round of talks with the United States. 2) President Donald Trump said it is "highly unlikely" he will extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran, which is set to expire Wednesday at 10 p.m. Washington time (10 a.m. Beijing time on April 23). 3) Jiang Wei of the China Iron and Steel Association said conditions in the steel sector are becoming more complex and challenging, urging the industry to stick to the "three determinations and three no's" and strengthen self-discipline through output control and inventory reduction. 4) Kuwait Petroleum Corporation declared force majeure on shipments of crude and refined products, citing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that is preventing vessels from entering the Persian Gulf and disrupting supply commitments. 5) Sources said Zambia's copper smelters and sulfuric acid producers Chambishi and Mopani will suspend operations for extended maintenance. 6) USDA crop progress data showed U.S. soybean planting reached 12% as of the week ended April 19, matching expectations, versus 7% a year ago and a five-year average of 5%. Macro - Iran's Foreign Ministry reiterated it has no plan for a second round of talks with the U.S., said transferring enriched uranium has never been discussed, and said reopening traffic in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be done unilaterally. Iranian media reported Iran's stance on not joining talks remains unchanged. - Trump said an extension of the ceasefire is "highly unlikely". He said Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan late Monday, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen before an agreement is signed, and warned that if the deal expires, "bombs will detonate". He said he is considering Pakistan's recommendations on the blockade of Iran and denied being drawn in by Israel. - A senior Iranian official said Iran is reviewing whether to participate in talks and has not made a final decision. Pakistan is mediating in a push to secure the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade on Iran to facilitate Iran's participation. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe route) was 1,610.42 as of April 20, down 6.8% from the prior reading. - China's latest LPR fixings were unchanged: 1-year LPR at 3.00% and 5-year-plus at 3.50%. Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing said the steady LPR reflects stronger-than-expected exports, a rebound in Q1 domestic investment growth, and some improvement in consumption. - On April 17, China's MIIT, NDRC, SAMR, NEA and other agencies held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry, calling for tougher action against "cutthroat" competition and outlining measures including capacity regulation, standards, innovation-driven development, price enforcement, quality oversight, M&A, and IP protection. - Pakistan said it still expects an Iranian delegation to arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday, adding Iran is willing to join a second round of negotiations. - Fed nominee Walsh pledged to uphold the independence of monetary policy, saying interference from government officials is not a real threat. Global futures moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold -0.79% to $4,841.00/oz; COMEX silver -2.41% to $79.87/oz. - Crude oil: WTI front-month +4.00% to $85.89/bbl; Brent front-month +3.78% to $93.80/bbl. - LME base metals: nickel +0.65% to $18,235.0/ton; lead +0.61% to $1,974.0/ton; tin -0.14% to $50,625.0/ton; aluminum -0.48% to $3,547.5/ton; copper -0.76% to $13,245.0/ton; zinc -0.93% to $3,414.0/ton. Ferrous (steel/iron ore) - China port arrivals (Apr 13–Apr 19, 2026): iron ore arrivals at 47 ports totaled 23.48 million tons, up 1.74 million tons week-on-week; arrivals at 45 ports totaled 23.143 million tons, up 2.806 million tons week-on-week; arrivals at six northern ports totaled 9.158 million tons, down 0.437 million tons week-on-week. - Mysteel global shipments (Apr 13–Apr 19): 30.739 million tons, down 1.123 million tons week-on-week. Australia+Brazil shipments totaled 25.360 million tons, down 1.454 million tons week-on-week. Australia shipped 18.363 million tons, down 0.785 million tons week-on-week, including 14.653 million tons to China, down 0.318 million tons week-on-week. - CISA's Jiang Wei said managing production pace and strict control of corporate inventories are key priorities to protect profitability, calling the current period a critical stage for ensuring industry profitability by 2026. Agriculture - Malaysia palm oil exports (Apr 1–20): ITS estimated 884,273 tons, down 25.8% from 1,191,962 tons in the same period last month. AmSpec estimated 868,281 tons, down 25.6% from 1,166,586 tons. - MPOC CEO Belvinder Sron said B12 implementation could raise Malaysia's domestic consumption by about 1.4 million tons; moving to B15 would require an additional 3 million tons. MPOB data show average annual biodiesel production in 2020–2025 was about 1.05 million tons, with average exports around 300,000 tons. - China National Center for Grain and Oil Information said crusher run rates edged higher. As of April 17, major oil mills processed about 3.9 million metric tons of soybeans nationwide. Late-April run rates are expected to stay steady, with full-month processing seen around 7 million tons, down about 1.3 million tons month-on-month but up about 1.6 million tons year-on-year, and roughly 300,000 tons above the three-year average for the period. - AgRural said Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest reached 92% as of last Thursday, up 5 percentage points week-on-week and in line with last year. It added that Brazil's second-crop corn is in good condition, with supportive weather underpinning expectations for a bumper harvest. - USDA export inspections (week ended April 16, 2026): the U.S. shipped 313,540 metric tons of soybeans to mainland China, versus 345,815 tons the prior week. China accounted for 41.88% of total U.S. soybean export inspections, versus 42.45% the week before. - USDA crop progress (week ended April 19): U.S. soybean planting at 12% (expected 12%, last year 7%, five-year average 5%); U.S. corn planting at 11% (expected 11%, last year 11%, five-year average 9%). - CONAB said Brazil's soybean harvest was 88.1% complete as of April 18, up from 85.7% the prior week, versus 92.7% a year ago and a five-year average of 88.7%. Energy and chemicals - Muliang Research said 20 vessels carrying New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive in Hong Kong this week, up 10 vessels week-on-week (+100%). Total volume is seen at about 683,000 cubic meters, up 371,000 cubic meters week-on-week (+119%). - Longzhong Information reported Qingdao natural rubber inventories (bonded + general trade) at 708,800 metric tons as of April 19, down 5,600 tons (-0.78%) versus the prior period. Bonded inventory was 125,800 tons (+0.51%); general trade inventory was 583,000 tons (-1.06%). - SMM said a 1,200-tons-per-day glass kiln in Anhui was shut for cold maintenance on April 20, reducing operating capacity further. More kilns are expected to enter cold maintenance or be sealed between April and May. - Longzhong reported Jiangsu port styrene inventories at 136,800 metric tons as of April 20, down 22,800 tons week-on-week (-14.29%). - Osaka Exchange data showed RSS rubber inventories at designated warehouses were 4,498 metric tons as of April 10, down from 4,746 metric tons as of March 31. - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation invoked force majeure on crude and products transportation, citing disruption from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Metals - China customs data: March lithium carbonate imports were 29,974 tons, up 13% month-on-month and up 65% year-on-year. Imports from Chile were 18,000 tons (61%), Argentina 8,292 tons (28%), Indonesia 2,100 tons (7%). - ILZSG: the global zinc market swung from a 21,900-ton deficit in January to a 49,600-ton surplus in February. Refined zinc showed a 28,000-ton surplus in Jan–Feb, versus a 38,000-ton surplus in the same period of 2025. The global lead surplus widened from 11,200 tons in January to 33,200 tons in February; Jan–Feb refined lead surplus totaled 44,000 tons, versus 29,000 tons a year earlier. - International Aluminium Institute: global primary aluminum output in March 2026 was 6.302 million tons, versus 6.242 million tons a year earlier and 5.685 million tons in the prior month (revised to 5.71 million tons). China's March primary aluminum output was estimated at 3.795 million tons, up from 3.421 million tons in the previous month. - Sources: Chambishi will shut from July to August; Mopani will shut from August 1 to September 15. Market commentary - Polysilicon: Everbright Futures said contracts across maturities hit limit up after Monday's open as policy expectations strengthened following the April 17 multi-agency photovoltaic symposium. It expects near-term prices to track policy signals; spot declines may be limited, futures volatility may stay elevated, and a sustained uptrend is unlikely. Watch for further industry meetings, policy follow-through, and any easing of the high-inventory/weak-demand imbalance. - Lithium carbonate: Jinrui Futures said sentiment has improved across futures and equities. It cited strong exports, a recovery in domestic consumption, and the strategic appeal of new energy under Middle East geopolitical tensions as potential demand tailwinds. Inventories built in April, with drawdowns expected in May and June; mineral supply could tighten. Near-term upside focus is around 180,000–185,000 RMB/ton. Watch Zimbabwe's export resumption, restart timing for idled mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, and correction risk from overheated speculation. Key calendar - Apr 21, 20:30: U.S. March retail sales (MoM). - Apr 21, 22:00: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair. - Apr 21: China opens a new pricing adjustment window for domestic refined oil products. - Apr 23, 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims (week ended Apr 18).