Cotton futures ended June higher, with contracts up 22 to 43 points even after the USDA put spring cotton plantings at 9.85 million acres, above trade ideas of 9.6 million and the March figure of 9.64 million. The July contract settled at 72.22 cents per pound. Crop Progress data showed 9% of fields setting bolls and conditions at 48% good/excellent, down 5 percentage points on the week, with Texas ratings falling 14 points. Crude oil slipped $0.82/bbl to $69.83 and the U.S. dollar index rose $0.118 to $100.995.

USDA reported 2025/26 U.S. all-wheat planted area at 42.74 million acres, below the 43.8 million average trade estimate and the March intentions figure. The agency also put June 1 wheat stocks at 920 million bushels, under expectations of 931 million bushels. USDA additionally disclosed new export sales, including 100,000 MT of HRS wheat to Nigeria for 2026/27 and 100,000 MT bought by a South Korean mill in a tender. Following the data, the lead wheat contracts across CBOT, KCBT and MIAX rose 9–29 cents.

USDA’s June Acreage report put U.S. cotton plantings at 9.85 million acres, above the 9.6 million expected by the market and the March estimate. Crop Progress showed planting was 97% complete, while 37% of the crop was squared and 9% was setting bolls, with good/excellent ratings slipping to 48% and Texas conditions weakening. ICE cotton futures traded higher, with the July contract up 34 points at 72 cents per pound and the December contract up 70 points at 77.15 cents per pound. Crude oil and the U.S. dollar index moved as well, but neither dictated cotton’s direction.

Unusually heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted transport to farms and ports and raised disease risks for cocoa trees, tightening supply expectations. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed El Niño formation, while NOAA puts the odds of a “Super El Niño” at 67%, a scenario that could worsen drought stress. Early assessments indicate Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop could be about 1.8 MMT, down 18% year on year, and StoneX has cut its projected global cocoa surplus to 149,000 MT. ICE and London cocoa futures rose more than 1.6% in a session, nearing 5.5-month highs.

Global oil supply risks appear to be easing, pressuring crude prices as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to prewar levels of 30–40 vessels a day. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to at least 75% of prewar levels, while the four-week average of Russian crude exports has climbed to 4.13 million bpd. OPEC+ has confirmed a 188,000 bpd output increase for June and said it plans to complete the return of halted production by the end of September. Even with U.S. inventories still below seasonal norms, the broader pickup in supply is weighing on sentiment, leaving WTI weaker while RBOB gasoline trades firmer.

Palantir said it has struck a strategic partnership with Nvidia to deploy open AI models inside classified and airgapped U.S. government systems by integrating Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra GPUs and Nemotron open-source models with Palantir’s AIP and other platforms. The companies did not disclose specific agency customers or financial terms, describing the move as a productized follow-on from earlier demonstrations tied to Nvidia’s GTC event and the “Chain Reaction” program. Palantir reported Q1 revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year on year, including $687 million from the U.S. government, up 84%.

Technology shares led gains, with AI infrastructure-linked chipmakers including ASML, Lam Research, KLA, AMD, Marvell, Texas Instruments, Applied Materials, ARM and Intel each rising more than 1%. AI spending is expected to drive results, with forecasts pointing to AI infrastructure stocks contributing nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s Q2 earnings-per-share growth. Some crypto-exposed stocks such as MicroStrategy, Coinbase and Riot came under pressure as bitcoin fell.

U.S. wheat futures fell across CBOT, KCBT and MIAX on Monday, with the lead contracts down 8–30 cents. NASS Crop Progress data showed winter wheat harvest at 48% as of Sunday, ahead of normal, while spring wheat development lagged its five-year average. Weekly export inspections totaled 358,253 MT for the week of 6/25, down 24.83% from the same week last year. Markets are also positioned for Tuesday’s June Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, with expectations centered on 43.8 million wheat acres and 931 million bushels in stocks as of June 1.

U.S. cotton crop condition ratings fell 5 percentage points week over week to 48% good/excellent, signaling tighter supply, according to the USDA’s latest NASS Crop Progress report. ICE cotton futures rose across the board, with the benchmark Jul 26 contract up 34 points to 72 cents per pound. Crude oil prices also moved higher and the U.S. dollar index weakened, but the key driver was the downgrade in crop ratings.