Crude slips as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic returns to 30–40 ships a day
AI Market Summary
Newsflow points to easing supply risk and rising effective barrels: tanker traffic via Hormuz has normalized, Persian Gulf exports recovered, Russian seaborne exports hit post-2022 highs, and OPEC+ reaffirmed phased quota increases through September. While US inventories remain seasonally tight and Ukrainian strikes constrain Russian refining, the market focus is shifting to incremental supply additions, weighing on WTI and related energy products near term.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDT-1.06%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Global oil supply risks appear to be easing, pressuring crude prices as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to prewar levels of 30–40 vessels a day. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to at least 75% of prewar levels, while the four-week average of Russian crude exports has climbed to 4.13 million bpd. OPEC+ has confirmed a 188,000 bpd output increase for June and said it plans to complete the return of halted production by the end of September. Even with U.S. inventories still below seasonal norms, the broader pickup in supply is weighing on sentiment, leaving WTI weaker while RBOB gasoline trades firmer.
