Gold slid to a seven-month low, with spot prices at $3,981.69 per ounce, while silver, platinum and palladium also moved lower. The decline came as dimming prospects for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace deal stoked inflation concerns and pushed the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 67%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she could back higher rates if inflation pressures do not ease. Investors are awaiting June ADP employment data and Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report for fresh signals on the policy path.

Oil prices climbed after Iran said it would not hold direct talks with U.S. envoys, weighing on prospects for an interim ceasefire in the Middle East and prompting a fresh repricing of geopolitical risk. Brent futures rose 0.69% to $73.45 a barrel and WTI gained 0.91% to $70.13. U.S. inventory figures from the API showed crude stocks fell 6.1 million barrels last week and gasoline inventories also declined, adding support to prices. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also recovered to prewar levels, easing fears of supply disruption.

Ferrari and BMW said they will adopt aluminium wiring at scale in new models, following Tesla and Chinese EV makers in switching away from copper. The move comes as copper prices surged, peaking close to $15,000 per metric ton in late January, while aluminium’s lighter weight also appeals to automakers. JPMorgan forecast about 2% of global copper demand could be replaced by aluminium in 2024, rising to 6% by 2030. Aluminium is currently priced at about $3,100 a ton, roughly a quarter of copper’s price.

Spot gold fell 1.5% to $3,957.74 an ounce and was headed for a fourth consecutive monthly drop, with a monthly decline of 12.7%. Silver, platinum and palladium also moved lower. Markets are pricing about a 63% chance of a September Fed rate increase and the U.S. dollar was set for a monthly gain, weighing on non-yielding metals.

The yen fell to 162.27 per dollar, its lowest level since 1986, heightening expectations that Japan’s Ministry of Finance could step in to support the currency. Earlier interventions totaling 11.7 trillion yen and recent Bank of Japan rate hikes have failed to halt the slide as the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap continues to weigh on the yen. Attention is now on Thursday’s U.S. June jobs report, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and influence the timing of any Tokyo action.

On June 29, the United States and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $73.15 a barrel and WTI gained 2.2% to $70.75. U.S. equities rallied, with the Dow ending above 52,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq up 2.07% as technology shares led, while Alphabet jumped nearly 5% in its first session as a Dow component. Trading was lighter ahead of the Independence Day holiday week and was influenced by end-of-quarter repositioning.

U.S. stocks finished higher after weekend tensions between the United States and Iran eased, with their technical teams expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to advance an interim peace deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record close, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.04% and the S&P 500 gained 1.16%. Tech shares led the advance, and communication services was the strongest-performing sector. Nasdaq said SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7, and Alphabet officially joined the Dow.

Soybean sowing across major growing belts including Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh is running about two weeks behind normal due to insufficient effective rainfall. SOPA data put India’s kharif 2025 soybean output at 11.02 mt. Supply risks are also rising globally as an El Niño event could hit production in the US, Brazil and Argentina. The US-Iran war has already pushed edible oil retail prices up 10%, and any shortfall in soybeans could lift soybean futures and crushing-product prices.

The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to rule on the Trump administration’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a case widely seen as a key test of the central bank’s independence. At the same time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to make his global debut at the European Central Bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal, outlining a shift away from explicit rate forward guidance. Warsh has said policy decisions will be driven by incoming data, as markets increasingly price in possible rate hikes even as Trump continues to call for cuts.