The US said its ceasefire agreement with Iran was “over,” and new strikes between the two sides slowed shipping through the State of Hormuz again. Brent briefly jumped to $79 a barrel before easing to $76.30. Opec+ agreed to raise cumulative quotas by 940,000 barrels per day to keep crude prices in check. In Thailand, June inflation eased to 2.42% and retail diesel and gasoline prices were cut by more than 2.5 baht a litre, while the SET index rose 0.6% for the week to 1,621.55 with net foreign buying of 16.35 billion baht.

An analyst expects the odds of successful US-Iran ceasefire talks to rise, with global crude prices potentially easing toward US$70 per barrel. He argues the Trump administration could loosen oil sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela to expand supply and bring prices down. Elevated oil prices are keeping US CPI and PPI under pressure, adding political incentives for a policy shift. The assessment does not cite any confirmed agreement or action and is presented as a policy pathway rather than an announced deal.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit an interest-rate forecast in the central bank’s latest quarterly projections, breaking with a long-standing practice, while the federal funds rate was held at 3.50% to 3.75%. The new dot plot included 18 submissions from 19 policymakers, with nearly half expecting a rate hike this year and six anticipating more than one quarter-point increase by year-end. The shift underscores growing concern that higher fuel prices could feed more broadly into inflation, even as the Iran-U.S. deal eased geopolitical tensions but damage to energy facilities may slow the recovery of oil exports. The development is seen as a signal of a policy pivot that strengthens near-term hike expectations and adds demand-side pressure to commodities such as crude oil.

Thailand’s Energy Ministry said it will keep its ban on refined oil exports, allowing only limited shipments to Laos and Myanmar and a narrow exemption for A1 jet fuel exports to the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The restrictions were introduced amid continued tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US, which have raised concerns about potential disruption to petroleum, chemical and LNG transport around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic diesel demand has risen to more than 77 million litres per day, while storage constraints have led refineries including PTT Global Chemical and Bangchak Sriracha to cut output by 15%.

PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) and Bangchak Corp cut retail fuel prices at stations nationwide early Tuesday. Most petrol grades, including gasoline 95 and gasohol E20, were reduced by 1.20 baht per litre, while highspeed diesel fell by 1.00 baht per litre. The move followed a slide in global oil prices to their lowest level since March after Iran and the United States agreed to end their war.