U.S. cotton crop condition ratings fell 5 percentage points week over week to 48% good/excellent, signaling tighter supply, according to the USDA’s latest NASS Crop Progress report. ICE cotton futures rose across the board, with the benchmark Jul 26 contract up 34 points to 72 cents per pound. Crude oil prices also moved higher and the U.S. dollar index weakened, but the key driver was the downgrade in crop ratings.

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has led to a pause in most oil sanctions, and Iran is expected to sharply boost production and exports. Brent and WTI crude rose 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively, but markets are pricing in a potential supply glut as Middle East flows recover. Gold fell as renewed inflation and interest-rate hike concerns returned.

South Korea’s government and major tech groups including Samsung and SK Hynix unveiled a $1 trillion investment plan spanning memory chip capacity expansion, new AI data centers and the commercialization of humanoid robots by 2028. The chip and data-center buildout would require more than 14 gigawatts of additional power, with a significant share tied to natural-gas generation. The plan comes as South Korea gets nearly 25% of its electricity from natural gas and faces higher prices and supply vulnerability during the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Taiwanese investigators raided local parties linked to Super Micro Computer (SMCI) as part of a probe into alleged efforts to bypass U.S. export controls and illegally reroute high-end Nvidia AI chips to higher-risk destinations. The case has raised fresh questions over the company’s ability to manage compliance across its global supply chain. It has also fueled concerns that U.S. authorities could coordinate enforcement, customers could re-evaluate supplier qualifications, and market worries over debt, cash flow and delivery of AI orders could intensify.

On June 29, the United States and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $73.15 a barrel and WTI gained 2.2% to $70.75. U.S. equities rallied, with the Dow ending above 52,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq up 2.07% as technology shares led, while Alphabet jumped nearly 5% in its first session as a Dow component. Trading was lighter ahead of the Independence Day holiday week and was influenced by end-of-quarter repositioning.

Toyota’s global sales fell 7.2% year on year in May, extending declines to a fourth consecutive month, as demand in China stayed weak. The report says higher gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict have been a key drag on China’s auto market. Japan’s exports to the Middle East plunged 65.9% in the same month, while Toyota’s global output posted its first drop in three months. Overall, Japan’s eight major automakers recorded year-on-year declines in both global sales and production.

Copper hit an intraday record of US$6.71 a pound on COMEX on May 13. Supply has tightened after disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, flooding at Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula complex, and a 10% year-on-year drop in Chilean output in March. At the same time, demand is being boosted by AI data centers, EVs and industrial robots, with S&P Global projecting copper demand will reach 42 million tonnes by 2040. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have raised their copper price targets to $13,735–$15,000 per metric ton.

U.S. stocks rallied as weekend hostilities between the United States and Iran eased, lifting tech shares and pushing the Nasdaq Composite up 2.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 52,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 rose 1.16%. SpaceX shares climbed after Nasdaq said the newly listed company will join the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7. Comcast jumped after announcing plans to split off NBCUniversal and Sky, and Alphabet ended higher on its first day as a Dow component.