IMF lifts 2026 global growth outlook to 3.3% while warning on tariffs and AI-driven risks

In its latest quarterly assessment released on Monday, the IMF increased its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1%, while cautioning that higher tariffs and geopolitical frictions could hinder that expansion. The fund highlighted heavy investment in artificial intelligence and elevated equity valuations as key vulnerabilities, warning that even a moderate stock market decline could drag growth down to 2.9%. It also upgraded projections for the United States, China and India, and stressed that central banks should safeguard their independence and cut interest rates only when inflation expectations remain firmly anchored.