Michael B. Jordan tops Polymarket odds for 2026 Oscars Best Actor after SAG win

On March 1, prediction market data showed Michael B. Jordan with only a 10% implied chance to win the upcoming Oscars Best Actor award, hours before he took the top male actor prize at the SAG Awards. By roughly a week before the Academy Awards ceremony on March 15, his Polymarket odds had surged to about 47%, narrowly ahead of Timothée Chalamet at 45%, with Leonardo DiCaprio, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke far behind. The Best Actor prediction market has recorded over $5.6 million in trading volume, while Polymarket simultaneously faces expanding U.S. regulatory scrutiny and pursues a U.S.-regulated rollout and large fundraising round alongside rival Kalshi.