Polymarket Faces Insider Trading Allegations and Rising Fears of "Information Laundering" in Geopolitical Bets

Polymarket is under scrutiny over large bets tied to Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which critics say may blur the line between forecasting and market manipulation. One wallet reportedly turned a $30,000 position on Maduro's removal into more than $400,000, while other trades speculated on a US strike on Iran and Khamenei's potential loss of power. These activities have sparked debate about "information laundering" and prompted a proposed US bill to restrict officials from trading on prediction markets using non-public information.