Polymarket sees 98% odds Fed holds rates at January 27–28 meeting

On January 22, 2026, Polymarket traders assigned a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the January 27–28 meeting. A January 16–21 survey of 100 economists showed unanimous expectations for a 3.50%–3.75% target range, with 58% anticipating no change through the quarter.