The FTX Recovery Trust plans to distribute $2.2 billion to eligible creditors and former customers on March 31, 2026, marking its fourth reimbursement round since February 2025. The plan includes specific payout percentages for different claim types and will lift the cumulative amount returned to about $10 billion, while some creditors continue to argue the recoveries are insufficient. The payments are based on 2022 petition-date crypto valuations and come as former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried pursues an appeal and potential prison transfer.

On Wednesday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index held at 26 after touching 28 the previous day, ending a 48-day spell in the extreme fear zone and hinting at improving risk appetite. Over March, total crypto market capitalization has risen 7.65%, adding about $174 billion and marking the first positive month since September 2025. At the same time, Binance saw a $2.2 billion USDT inflow on March 18 and exchange stablecoin reserves climbed to $68.5 billion, suggesting traders are preparing to re-enter the market.

Bitcoin briefly climbed to $76,000 before retreating by $5,000 and was trading around $71,400, while some analysts expect further upside if key resistance levels are flipped into support. Recent whale purchases of 40,000 BTC, ongoing spot ETF inflows and a six-year low in exchange balances are seen as supportive factors, even as a historic monthly Bollinger Bands squeeze signals that major volatility could be ahead.

On 18 March, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% while indicating that inflation remains too high for near-term cuts. Fresh projections point to PCE inflation at 2.7%, GDP growth of 2.4%, unemployment at 4.4%, and a federal funds rate near 3.4% in 2026, suggesting a slow and measured path to policy easing that will keep markets focused on incoming data.

On March 17 in Washington, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it has joined an interpretation issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission on the treatment of crypto assets under federal securities laws. The agencies outlined how certain non-security crypto assets may be classified as commodities and provided guidance on areas such as airdrops, protocol mining, staking, and wrapped assets. The interpretation will appear on CFTC.gov and in the Federal Register and is intended to give market participants clearer regulatory expectations.

In 2026, the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second straight meeting, and Bitcoin's price reacted with sharp volatility. The cryptocurrency briefly fell by $5,000 ahead of the FOMC decision but then recovered to around $72,000 once the announcement was released.

Bitcoin’s price fell 3.4% to around $70,900 on Wednesday alongside a broader U.S. equity sell-off after a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index reading. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, BTC quickly reclaimed the $72,000 level, with buyers absorbing sell pressure near key support zones around $71,000. Onchain and order book data show profit-taking below $75,000 and passive bids between $71,000 and $74,000, while analysts highlight Bitcoin’s tendency to weaken after recent FOMC meetings.

On Monday, personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki warned that a major traditional finance bubble burst is approaching and claimed Bitcoin could reach $750,000 within a year of the crash. His scenario also assumes gold jumps to $35,000 per ounce and silver’s market cap exceeds $11 trillion. The analysis notes that his Bitcoin target implies a lower Bitcoin-to-gold ratio than past peaks and emphasizes Kiyosaki’s mixed track record of predicting crashes.