Fed January 25bp Cut Odds Rise to 17.7%, Hold at 82.3%

The probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in January rose to 17.7% on December 28, with an 82.3% chance of holding rates steady, CME FedWatch data show. Through March, FedWatch shows a 46.7% probability of no change, 45.6% for a cumulative 25bp cut, and 7.7% for a cumulative 50bp cut. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026 and March 18, 2026.