44% of Bitcoin supply now sits below cost, with unrealized losses nearing $598.7B

Huo Xing Finance reported on April 2, citing Cointelegraph, that Bitcoin was trading at $66,450, about 47% below its October 2025 record high of $126,000, leaving many investors holding sizable paper losses. Glassnode estimates roughly 8.8 million BTC are currently "underwater," translating to around $598.7 billion in unrealized losses and accounting for more than 44% of circulating supply. Glassnode said the magnitude of the overhang resembles Q2 2022 and noted that clearing it typically requires coins to move from loss-bearing holders to new buyers willing to step in at lower prices. The firm also pointed to rising realized losses among long-term holders (coins held for more than 155 days), with daily realized losses climbing to about $200 million. Glassnode characterized the move as "confirmation of active stop-loss selling" and said a sustained drop below $25 million per day would be a stronger sign that selling pressure has largely been exhausted—a setup that has historically preceded market bottoms and subsequent bull-market transitions. Bitcoin's spot price remains below the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders, estimated at $83,408, suggesting mounting stress for that cohort. For the week ended March 27, global Bitcoin investment products posted net outflows of more than $194 million. Demand indicators continue to lean bearish. Capriole Investment's apparent Bitcoin demand gauge was 1,623 BTC on Thursday, pointing to seller control. CryptoQuant said the demand contraction since late November 2025 "confirms the broader market remains in a distribution phase." The Coinbase Premium Index also remains negative, indicating U.S. investors have yet to return in meaningful size.