Per Alphractal's Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator, the market peaked on 10 October and a bearish phase could extend until 16 October, 2026, with a projected $40,000–$45,000 bottom. Bitcoin has slid from a $126,000 ATH to near $87,000. TradingView metrics show muted distribution and a softening MACD.

China's export controls on silver begin on 01 January, intensifying a metals rally as Bitcoin faces a key test into Q1 2026. In Q4 2025, silver surged 70% to an all-time high of $79/oz while BTC fell 25% after early-October tariff headlines. Analysts say institutions now hold 50–60% of silver supply, tightening flows.

Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH of $126,000 has been followed by extended consolidation, and several prominent commentators now lean bearish. On December 27, 2025, Ki Young Ju noted the sentiment shift while BTC traded at $87,448.61, down 1.36% in 24 hours and with $27.8 billion volume off 16.9%. Technicals highlight risks toward $67,000, with support near $80,600 and $74,111.

On December 27, 2025, spot silver jumped to roughly $79.31 per ounce, logging a daily move of more than 10% and breaking through long-standing resistance. Technical analyst Peter Brandt sees the advance as part of a broader expansion phase, while other traders note that silver has gained around 190% versus Bitcoin over four months, pushing the market into volatile price discovery. Momentum indicators now show stretched conditions, suggesting elevated risk of sharp corrections even as the longer-term trend remains pointed higher.

Bitcoin began 2025 at $93,000, hit over $126,000 in October, and traded just above $87,300 at publication, down about 6.5% for the year. On December 26, 2025, Maartunn said over 6.6M BTC were above spot and at a loss, while seven transfers totaling 13,904 BTC moved about $1.03 billion. TradingView shows stabilization near $88,700, with $86k–$88k support and $95k needed to regain momentum.

Bitcoin trades around $87,440 after a 1.35% 24-hour decline, with price compressing inside a descending channel rather than breaking down. Resistance sits at $88,600 with follow-ups at $90,500 and $92,500, while support holds at $86,300 and $84,450. Momentum remains neutral as RSI hovers near 47–50 and EMAs cluster around $87,800–$88,500.

Bitcoin is trading just above the key $85,000 area, a level that analysts view as both psychological and technically important. CryptoOnchain points to a descending triangle pattern and low exchange withdrawal activity, with the latter dropping to around 5,000 transactions, the lowest level since 2016. If this support fails and buyer demand remains weak, analysts warn the price could fall quickly, even as Bitcoin currently trades near $87,410 with little short-term movement.

Bitcoin futures open interest on major exchanges dropped to $42 billion, the lowest level in eight months, while BTC again failed to hold above $89,000. Despite roughly $825 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and stronger demand for safe haven assets like gold and silver, futures basis and options skew indicate only limited downside risk for BTC around the $85,000 support area.