The second phase of U.S.-Iran peace talks, including technical discussions planned for Lucerne, Switzerland, has been delayed after a memorandum was signed remotely and the U.S. vice president canceled his trip. Iranian leaders voiced deep skepticism about U.S. intentions and warned of a predetermined retaliation mechanism in case of bad faith or violations, shifting attention toward sensitive issues including Iran’s nuclear program. With only a 60-day window to finalize an agreement, the delay leaves less time for negotiations. The setback underscores the fragility of the process, but it brings no new facts of military escalation, tougher sanctions, or attacks on energy facilities that would directly jolt traditional markets.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed for nearly four months amid a U.S.-Iran conflict, leaving a permanent loss of 1.15 billion barrels of global oil supply. Strategic reserves tracked by the International Energy Administration and the U.S. emergency reserve have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990 and a 43-year low, respectively. Commercial inventories are under operational strain, with the Cushing, Oklahoma hub reaching a critical pressure threshold. Although the strait has reopened, rebuilding stocks could take about a year, raising near-term risks of physical inventory exhaustion that could hit spot and futures markets.

President Donald Trump has set Iran a new 60-day deadline to reach a nuclear deal while warning that U.S. military force could follow, even as Iran remains defiant and Israel pushes for strikes. The move echoes a similar March 2025 ultimatum that preceded Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” on June 13, a 12-day war and a subsequent U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The renewed cycle has intensified regional conflict and heightened global fears over energy supply disruptions, feeding demand for safe-haven assets. The article says the transmission to oil and gold markets is direct and urgent, even though it does not name specific traditional financial instruments.