Sindh province has imposed retail flour price caps in Karachi at PKR 125–145 per kilogram, even as market prices are selling at PKR 145–170 per kilogram. Flour millers say wheat procurement costs have risen to around PKR 116 per kilogram, making production under the official rates financially unsustainable. Industry representatives have warned that, without a revision to the pricing policy, supply disruptions could follow, according to The Express Tribune.

US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, far below expectations of 100,000, strengthening bets that the Federal Reserve could shift toward an easier policy stance. Spot gold climbed 1.4% to $4,179.94 an ounce, while crude traded in the $71–$72 a barrel range and the dollar index weakened. Indian equities rallied at the open, with the Sensex up more than 500 points and the Nifty moving above 24,300.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to a 2% inflation target at a European Central Bank panel in Sintra. He said those expecting the Fed to accept an inflation objective above 2% would be disappointed and offered no guidance on the July 28 policy meeting or the September 15-16 meeting. After his remarks, markets pared back expectations for rate cuts, with the implied probability of a September rate increase rising to 70%.

The yen fell below 162 to the dollar on June 30, marking a 40-year low. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened in the market from April to May, deploying more than USD 72 billion to stabilise the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan has recently raised its policy rate to 1%—a 30-year high—and is scaling back Japanese government bond purchases. A widening Japan-US rate gap, rising energy import costs and inflation pressures, including wholesale prices above 6% year-on-year in May, are weighing on the currency.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Indian Oil Corporation’s BBB- rating with a Stable outlook, while warning that FY27 EBITDA could fall 50%-60% as the Iran conflict lifts import costs. It expects FY28 earnings to rebound as crude prices move back toward mid-cycle levels and refining margins recover. The agency said IOC’s policy role and full state backing underpin its credit profile, and that the pressure stems from higher costs rather than a direct supply disruption, according to Fitch.

Nuvama said the ongoing West Asia conflict is likely to keep corporate earnings under pressure in the first half of FY27 as higher energy costs narrow margins. The impact will vary by sector: some automakers are absorbing the cost increase, while consumer-facing companies such as paint makers are passing it on, risking slower volumes. The report expects earnings to rebound in the second half, but warns that weak demand, fading GST-cut support and subdued income dynamics could put the BSE500’s 19% YoY profit-after-tax growth forecast at risk of downgrades.

Indian equities opened higher on Monday, with the SENSEX up 0.47% and the NIFTY50 gaining 0.39%. The move followed a pullback in Brent crude to $79.55 per barrel amid broader weakness in oil prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to 72,935.00, while gold rose to $4,176.09 an ounce. Analysts said steadier oil, stronger Japanese shares and a firmer rupee helped lift sentiment.

Iran has suspended a quadrilateral technical meeting in Switzerland involving the U.S., Iran, Qatar and Pakistan after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly threatened to hit Iran “very hard” over its “highly paid proxies in Lebanon,” according to Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson. He said discussions had continued on licences for Iranian oil sales, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a maritime security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, with progress reported on the oil and assets issues. Qatar and Pakistan sought to keep the talks in a four-party format, but Iran declined. The pause leaves key implementation arrangements stalled despite technical progress, adding uncertainty to efforts tied to Iranian oil exports.

India’s sugar output fell to 29.3 million tonnes (MT) in FY25, about 18% below its FY22 peak, while domestic consumption rose to a record 29.0 MT in FY24, tightening the supply-demand balance. The gap between supply and demand narrowed to 0.3 MT in FY24, the tightest in a decade, according to Exencial Research Partners. The report said the outlook hinges on the FY26 monsoon and ethanol diversion policy, as FY25 cane output came in below ISMA’s earlier estimate. It also noted a shift in export destinations toward Africa and the Gulf, even as export revenues remain below the FY23 peak.