Crude Oil Near $100 and the Inflation Impact of Prolonged Price Shocks by December 2026

On March 8, 2026, crude oil's climb toward $100 per barrel prompted renewed inflation worries as Barclays highlighted how a 10% sustained rise can add about 0.2 percentage points to headline CPI within one to two months. The bank projects headline CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8% by December 2026 if oil does not stay elevated, but warns that a prolonged period near $100 could lift headline inflation toward 3% and potentially delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.