A high-timeframe trader has outlined a Bitcoin fractal that closely aligns the current market cycle with the structural pattern observed before the 2021 bull run. The comparison includes similar distribution phases, a drop to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and recovery attempts capped by descending resistance, while also framing $100,000 as a key psychological barrier. Within this framework, potential moves toward the $98,000–$99,000 area and a median short-term cost basis near $95,000–$100,000 are highlighted, with a sustained break above $104,000–$105,000 flagged as the level that would invalidate the fractal thesis.

In 2026, institutional investors are buying about six times more Bitcoin than miners are issuing, after a sharp demand surge that began in 2024. This imbalance, together with accelerating global M2 growth and renewed spot ETF inflows, is tightening BTC's market structure around the $96,000 level. While liquidity tailwinds could support further upside, any slowdown in money supply or reversal in ETF flows may quickly weaken the current bullish momentum.

White House digital assets advisor Patrick Witt said he received confirmation from the US Department of Justice that Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case has not been sold and will remain in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The transfer of 57.5 BTC from a US-controlled address to Coinbase Prime in November had prompted allegations of a breach of Executive Order 14233, which requires forfeited Bitcoin to be held rather than liquidated.

The U.S. Department of Justice has confirmed that Bitcoin seized in connection with Samourai Wallet has not been sold and will stay on the federal balance sheet as part of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The clarification, which aligns with recent on-chain data, addresses earlier reports that prosecutors had liquidated the forfeited coins in a manner that could conflict with Executive Order 14233.

White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated that Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case has not been sold and will remain on the US government's balance sheet under the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The assets in question amount to 57.55 BTC, valued at nearly $6.4 million, and were seized after US authorities said the mixer was used for over $237 million in illicit transactions.

After tagging a local high near $98,000 on Wednesday, Bitcoin pulled back for two sessions and traded below $95,000 by Friday’s New York hours. According to CoinGlass, the Coinbase premium rolled over near the highs as spot demand faded. CryptoQuant data show short-term holders realized over 40,000 BTC in profits on Jan. 15 and more than 30,000 BTC on Jan. 6.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with $1.81 billion in net inflows, reversing more than $681 million of outflows from the previous week. Total net assets stood near $125.2 billion, and BTC closed around $94,800, up roughly 4.4% over the period. Flows were broad-based across issuers, while price action showed consolidation within a volatile range.

On January 16, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice confirmed that the roughly 58 BTC forfeited by Samourai Wallet developers will be held on the federal balance sheet within the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve under Executive Order 14233. Earlier reports had suggested a possible sale via SDNY and the U.S. Marshals Service.