The U.S. PCE Price Index held steady at 3.7% year over year in July, above the 3.6% consensus forecast. After the release, expectations for further Fed tightening firmed, with the implied probability of an October rate hike rising to 54.7%. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year moving above 4.22% and the 10-year holding above 4.66%. Gold failed to break $4630–$4650 and slipped back toward $4600, while silver came under pressure as it tested support near $68.00.

U.S. data for July came in weaker than expected, with retail sales falling 0.6% versus forecasts for a 0.1% rise, while CPI eased to 3.4% year on year from 3.5% and PPI was flat. The softer readings pushed markets to sharply scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rate futures put the chance of a hike at 31%, down from above 50% a week earlier. As the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 99.67 on Friday, spot gold rose and positioned itself to test recent highs.

Natural gas (natgas) is struggling under a resistance band at $3.33 and $3.38, and repeated failures to clear those levels keep downside risk in focus. The weekly chart has printed a double inside week, a compression pattern that can precede a directional move either higher or lower. After breaking a long-term rising trendline in February, that former support is now acting as resistance while price remains below the 200-day moving average at $3.44, reinforcing a bearish setup.