Gold climbs as September Fed hike odds drop to 31% and the dollar slips to 99.67
AI Market Summary
Soft US July data (retail sales -0.6% m/m, CPI 3.4% y/y, flat PPI) pushed markets to cut September Fed hike odds to ~31%, weakening the dollar (DXY -0.3%). Gold benefited despite higher Treasury yields, highlighting rates repricing and FX as the dominant drivers. Geopolitical energy risk around the Strait of Hormuz could complicate the disinflation narrative and keep volatility elevated.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOGOLD2USD/USDT+0.25%
AI Insight · NCCOGOLD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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U.S. data for July came in weaker than expected, with retail sales falling 0.6% versus forecasts for a 0.1% rise, while CPI eased to 3.4% year on year from 3.5% and PPI was flat. The softer readings pushed markets to sharply scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rate futures put the chance of a hike at 31%, down from above 50% a week earlier. As the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 99.67 on Friday, spot gold rose and positioned itself to test recent highs.
