Commodity

Missile exchanges between the U.S. and Iran intensified this week, slowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and stoking fears of oil supply disruptions. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels added to concerns over broader risks to key shipping routes. Brent crude briefly moved above $100 a barrel before settling at $96.78, while WTI closed at $89.31. The conflict has heightened worries about disruptions along major global supply corridors, acting as a bullish catalyst for international oil futures.

Gold prices in Pakistan fell sharply in a single day, with 24K gold down Rs4,600 per tola to Rs427,436. Spot gold also eased internationally, falling $46 to $4,050 per ounce. Silver prices declined as well, with local silver down Rs61 per tola to Rs6,309 and international silver down $0.61 to $58.30 per ounce.

Gold has held the key $4,000-per-ounce support level for five consecutive weeks but has failed to sustain gains above $4,100. Over the same period, escalating conflict in Iran lifted oil to a nine-week high, reinforcing inflation concerns. Markets are not expected to see a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, but the implied probability of a September hike has risen to about 66%. Investors are also watching the Bank of Japan’s July 31 meeting for a potential hawkish surprise as the yen slid to a 40-year low, while the U.S. is considering 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners that could add second-round inflation pressure.

Mali’s mines ministry plan shows the country’s industrial gold production is expected to remain below 60 tons a year from 2026 to 2029, peaking at 57 tons in 2028 versus a record 66.5 tons in 2023. Output has been pressured by the 2023 mining code and disputes with foreign miners including Barrick, contributing to a drop to 42.2 tons in 2025. Over the same period, industrial gold reserves are projected to fall from 906.8 tons in 2026 to 748.6 tons in 2029.

Sugar prices ended Friday modestly higher, with October NY world sugar #11 rising +0.08 (+0.54%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 up +1.00 (0.22%). A slightly weaker dollar and pre-weekend short covering helped lift prices after the market hit a one-week low earlier in the session. Declines in crude oil weighed on ethanol values, potentially encouraging mills to divert less cane toward ethanol and increasing sugar supply. Markets also monitored monsoon developments in India and the risk that an El Niño could curb rainfall in major producing regions.

Cocoa futures rebounded on Friday, with the September ICE New York contract up 1.41% and the September ICE London contract up 1.23%. The gains were attributed to pre-weekend short covering and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. The rally came despite signs of ample supply, including Ivory Coast port arrivals running 21% higher year on year and ICE inventories at a two-year high of 3,319,249 bags. Longer-term, tighter expectations for 2026/27—linked to El Niño risks and softer crop outlooks—have supported prices, including a Transgraph Consulting forecast for the global surplus to shrink to 80,000 metric tons.

Coffee prices rebounded on Friday as stronger El Niño signals revived concerns that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop could be reduced. Tightening supply indicators added support, including severely insufficient rainfall in Brazil, a slower harvest pace, and ICE arabica inventories falling to a 2.5-year low. While the USDA raised its global output outlook, the projection was framed around no further weather deterioration, with El Niño cited as a likely source of disruption. Surging Vietnam robusta exports continued to weigh on robusta, even as arabica found firmer support.

India’s poultry feed prices are up 15% year-on-year to Rs 4,400/quintal, driven by a 1.5 million tonne shortage of soybean meal and a jump in maize prices to Rs 27–Rs 28/kg from Rs 18–Rs 19/kg in April. With feed accounting for 65% of broiler production costs, farm-gate and retail prices for chicken and eggs have climbed. Soybean sowing has fallen 4.5% year-on-year to 10.6 million hectares, while soybean is trading around Rs 6,900/quintal versus an MSP of Rs 5,708/quintal for the 2026-27 season.

Wheat futures posted broad losses on Friday, with front-month contracts in CBOT, KCBT and MIAX down 17–20 cents on the day. Ukraine proposed steps to keep vessels moving in the Black Sea, but there was no formal agreement between Ukraine and Russia. U.S. new-crop wheat export sales total 6.68 MMT, down 26% from last year. Spring wheat yield on the annual tour was estimated at 48 bpa, while IKAR sees Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports at 44.5 MMT.

U.S. corn futures were down 1–2 cents by midday Friday, while the national average cash corn price fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.32 per bushel. NOAA’s 7-day QPF calls for less than 0.5 inches of rain across much of the Corn Belt over the next week, with Missouri and eastern Ohio the main exceptions. Export Sales data released Thursday showed total corn commitments at 86.613 MMT, or 103% of the USDA export projection, and new-crop sales at 7.56 MMT, up 12.5% from the same period last year.