Macro

S&P Global upgraded Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating from B- to B, its first such move since 2016, citing stronger external buffers and improved fiscal metrics. Foreign exchange reserves rose to $25.3 billion from $6.7 billion in December 2022, while the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4% from nearly 8% in FY2022-23. The agency also pointed to IMF-backed reforms and greater institutional stability, but warned that debt-servicing costs, security risks and regional tensions remain constraints, according to S&P Global.

The European Central Bank is moving ahead with a €51.8 billion bond issuance plan, creating what some describe as a “bond wall.” The issuance is expected to absorb liquidity from the eurozone financial system, adding pressure to an already shrinking global pool of capital. Bitcoin, treated as a risk asset, is seeing its inflows directly affected by the tighter macro liquidity backdrop. The article does not cite other crypto assets or specific policy timing, saying only that BTC is competing with the ECB’s issuance for capital.

The Trump administration announced new 10% to 25% tariffs on a range of goods from major trading partners, while oil prices remained up more than 28% for the month, adding to inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Markets have trimmed expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, with the implied probability falling to 64% from 87%, according to CME Group FedWatch. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6% and logged a second straight weekly decline, while Intel sank 7.9% despite a 25% revenue jump, highlighting worries about costs and end-market demand. Digital Realty surged 10.9% on strong AI data-center demand.

The headline says Bitcoin bulls are facing an unprecedented macroeconomic test in 17 years. It frames the macro backdrop as a challenge to the rationale for holding BTC. However, it provides no specific figures, policy events, central-bank statements, or economic indicators. It also does not clarify what the “17 years” reference is based on.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.47% to 66,424.44 by Thursday’s midday break, led by chip-related shares following gains in U.S. peers. Advantest jumped 4.31% and Tokyo Electron added 0.45%, while domestic-demand retailers fell more than 2% amid worries the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates earlier than expected. Bank stocks advanced as Japanese government bond yields climbed. Alphabet’s decision to lift 2024 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion–$205 billion helped underpin sentiment across the global semiconductor sector.

Preliminary data from the Bank of Korea showed South Korea’s GDP grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis, beating a 0.4% market forecast. Year-on-year growth came in at 3.7%, also above expectations of 3.5%. The expansion was driven mainly by a lift in semiconductor exports. Following the release, the KOSPI rose 3.04% and Samsung Electronics climbed as much as 4.8%.

Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in June, in line with expectations, even as 76,000 people started a new job and the participation rate edged up to 67%. Inflation remains at 4.0%, above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. Economists expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.6% by year-end, while renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz add uncertainty to the inflation outlook. The figures underscored signs of a tight labour market, influencing the Australian dollar and government bond yields, but did not provide an immediate catalyst for spot trading.

A Goldman Sachs report says Turkey’s policy focus has shifted from “cutting rates” to “repairing external imbalances,” and that policymakers will tolerate faster lira depreciation to lift real rates while inflation takes a back seat. The approach implies the USD/TRY exchange rate could strengthen markedly in the near term. It also suggests the central bank may later move its policy-rate corridor sharply higher. The piece frames the shift as a change in policy narrative rather than routine fine-tuning.

Nigeria’s central bank kept its Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5% and maintained the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45%, saying the naira should be determined by market forces rather than propped up. The IMF has assessed the naira as still about 25.6% undervalued versus economic fundamentals. Headline inflation edged down to 15.91% in June, while food inflation rose to 17.52%. The central bank flagged escalating conflict in the Middle East as the biggest external risk, warning it could lift energy prices and feed into domestic inflation.

U.S. June core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, below the 2.8% market forecast, with the data released on Jul 14. The softer print strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and helped push crypto spot ETF flows from negative to positive. Over the following five trading sessions, the ETFs posted $866.7M in net inflows, including BTC at +$712.7M and ETH at +$154.0M.