Bitcoin Fractal Model Points to $41,500–$45,000 Cycle Low Around Early October 2026

Bitcoin has been capped below the $90,000 psychological zone during the Christmas period, while other asset classes logged stronger festive rallies. On-chain analyst Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, projects via a Repetition Fractal Cycle chart that BTC could carve out its next bear-market bottom around early October 2026 in the $41,500–$45,000 range. This scenario implies a potential drawdown of roughly 50% from the current price of about $87,550 and around a 65% correction from the cycle peak, though he stresses it is a probabilistic fractal pattern rather than a fixed forecast.