CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino points to Bitcoin's monthly SuperTrend indicator as still signaling support, with BTC trading around the mid-$60,000 range. He notes that the one-month chart has not yet confirmed a sell signal, even after recent downside and a 14.8% drop in February from the monthly open. However, Severino cautions that past bear markets have often held this support for one to three months before breaking down and warns that historical Ichimoku data leaves room for a further 38% to 66% decline.

On 2 March 2026, Bitcoin was trading in a consolidation range around $65,000–$68,000 after retreating from its 2025 all‑time high of $126,000. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg forecasts a cycle peak between $110,000 and $120,000 by the end of March 2026, with a 25% chance of an overshoot to $140,000–$150,000 and similarly bullish targets for Ethereum and Solana. He cites a supportive risk-on backdrop, ongoing spot ETF inflows and expanding institutional participation, while other analysts highlight macro uncertainty and waning retail enthusiasm as key risks.

In March 2026, Bitcoin is trading above $66,000 after a recent low near $62,920, with analysts debating whether the $60,000–$70,000 range marks a major accumulation phase. Macro economist Henrik Zeberg projects a primary scenario in which BTC could surge to $110,000–$120,000, with a more aggressive path toward $140,000–$150,000 if ETF inflows and risk-on sentiment persist. A recent short squeeze from the February 24 dip and an Extreme Fear reading on sentiment gauges are reinforcing the bull case, while a failure to hold $60,000 would significantly weaken the structure.

Bitcoin began the first week of March 2026 trading above $65,000 despite heightened tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices. Traders and analysts highlighted potential downside targets between $40,000 and $50,000 based on long‑term technical patterns, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs logged over $1 billion in net inflows across three days. Market commentary suggested the military campaign may remain limited in duration due to US inflation concerns, while institutional demand signaled an early shift in how BTC is being accumulated.

On Monday, Bitcoin stabilized above $65,000 after a volatile weekend marked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions. As crude prices jumped and major U.S. equity futures fell, roughly $1.8 billion in crypto derivatives were sold within an hour and about $358.7 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. Bitcoin still traded near $65,900, down 1.7% over 24 hours but outperforming many altcoins, with the $64,000–$65,000 zone now seen as a key support area.

On March 1, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the latest U.S. military escalation in Iran fits a decades-long pattern in which Middle East conflicts are followed by Federal Reserve easing, providing a long-term boost to Bitcoin. He referenced the 1990 Gulf War and post-9/11 rate cuts to support his view and noted Bitcoin's sharp move between $63,600 and $67,000 around the February 28 reports of strikes and rumors about Iran's Supreme Leader. Hayes recommends waiting for an actual Fed rate cut or renewed money printing before aggressively buying Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

On 2 March 2026, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, argued that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued versus gold and global liquidity, estimating it trades 24% to 66% below its historical trend. He pointed to a BTC-to-gold Z-score of -1.24 as of 1 March 2026 and highlighted that gold’s market cap is still roughly 10 times larger than Bitcoin’s. Mow continues to project a long-term price target of $1 million per BTC and expects further nation-state adoption, while some analysts warn Bitcoin could still retest the $50,000 area amid macro risks.

According to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, the score fell to 9 last week as BTC slid toward $60,000. This extreme reading has only been seen during the 2018–2019 bear market and the 2022 FTX collapse. Previous instances were followed by months of accumulation and then a steady advance, though results can vary.