On Thursday, Bitcoin's price hovered near $95,500 after retreating from $97,900, even as an 8% three-day rally liquidated $465 million in short futures positions. The perpetual futures funding rate sat at 4%, below typical neutral levels, highlighting soft retail demand while institutional flows into spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases expanded to over $225 billion in BTC exposure. Broader macro uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's independence and tensions involving Iran have added to traders' caution despite strong stock and precious metal performance.

Bitcoin is edging out of a prolonged range, with former resistance at $94,800 now acting as support, according to Bitcoin Meraklsi. Price is trading above the $96,000 area, and analysts flag the $107,000–$107,300 zone as the next hurdle. Crypto Candy notes that a failure back below $94,000 would risk a false breakout.

Bitcoin has reinforced its upside bias by breaking above the $94,200 resistance and moving close to the 50-week EMA near $97,200, with price action forming a double-bottom around the $86,300 area. On-chain Value Days Destroyed readings near 0.53 in January 2026 indicate that long-term holders are largely inactive, supporting a thesis that the advance toward and potentially beyond the $100,000 region is being driven by sustained demand rather than heavy distribution. Technical resistance around the $97,600-$98,200 band and higher levels at $103,650 and $111,600 remain key thresholds for confirming a stronger bullish continuation.

On January 15, 2026, Arthur Hayes argued that Bitcoin could move to new all-time highs in 2026 if U.S. dollar liquidity expands again. He links Bitcoin’s weak showing in 2025 to the Federal Reserve’s prior balance sheet reduction and tighter financial conditions. Hayes believes a renewed growth in the monetary base and broader liquidity could shift capital from assets like gold and tech stocks back into Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reports that retail traders have largely exited Bitcoin, with their funds moving into stocks, gold, and silver during the recent metals rally. At the same time, large investors and institutions are accumulating Bitcoin, supported by over $900 million of spot ETF inflows in early January and a Fear and Greed Index reading of 61 following the October 2024 liquidation event.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have increased their balances by 46,000 BTC this week, pushing the one-year net change back into positive territory for the first time since November 2025. In contrast, dolphin addresses with 100–1,000 BTC, including ETFs and treasuries, have cut holdings to 589,000 BTC from a peak of 972,000 BTC, signaling a prolonged cooling in demand.

On January 15, 2026, Bitcoin paused after a multi-week climb, trading around $96.6K and posting a small daily pullback. The stall occurred beneath the $100K mark and just under $97K, as risk rotated and leverage reset. Data cited in the article indicates netflows stayed negative and open interest was elevated without sharp spikes.

Arthur Hayes said in his essay "Frowny Cloud" that Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 despite an all-time high above $126,000, citing a contraction in US dollar credit. He expects 2026 to bring a rebound in liquidity via Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion and Reserve Management Purchases, estimating at least $40 billion per month, and disclosed leveraged BTC exposure through Strategy and Metaplanet.